Blues vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [12/22/2025]

NHL action continues on Monday at 7:00 PM ET as the St. Louis Blues take on the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Blues vs. Lightning game.

This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Blues vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's NHL matchup between the Blues and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 65% chance of defeating the Blues.

According to our model, the Blues (+1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of going over.

Blues vs. Lightning odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Blues	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-120)	-1.5 (+106)
Moneyline	+205	-245
Total	o5.5 (-115)	u5.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Blues vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Blues +1.5	-120
Moneyline	Blues	+205
Total	Over 5.5	-115

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Blues +1.5 at the spread.

Blues vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Blues vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Blues vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 41.7% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.9% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

St. Louis Blues

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Robert Thomas	27.5%
Jake Neighbours	26.7%
Jonatan Berggren	24.5%
Pavel Buchnevich	21.1%
Pius Suter	19.7%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	41.7%
Brayden Point	38.5%
Nikita Kucherov	37.1%
Anthony Cirelli	24.8%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	21.1%

First goal scorer predictions

St. Louis Blues

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Neighbours	5.2%
Robert Thomas	5.2%
Jonatan Berggren	4.7%
Pavel Buchnevich	3.9%
Pius Suter	3.4%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	8.9%
Brayden Point	8.1%
Nikita Kucherov	7.3%
Anthony Cirelli	3.8%
Nick Paul	3.6%

Blues vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Monday's action between the Lightning and Blues at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: St. Louis Blues vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Monday, December 22, 2025
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Blues on Monday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Blues vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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