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Blues vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [12/22/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Monday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will face the St. Louis Blues in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Monday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Blues vs. Lightning game.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Blues vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Monday's NHL game between the Blues and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 64% chance of beating the Blues.
According to our model, the Blues (+1.5) have a 58% chance of covering the puck line, while the 5.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Blues vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Blues | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-125) | -1.5 (+114) |
| Moneyline | +195 | -235 |
| Total | o5.5 (-120) | u5.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Blues vs. Lightning picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Blues +1.5 | -125 |
| Moneyline | Blues | +195 |
| Total | Over 5.5 | -120 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Blues +1.5 at the spread.
Blues vs. Lightning player props
Who will score a goal in Blues vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Blues vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Guentzel a 42.9% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is an 8.8% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
St. Louis Blues
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Neighbours | 28.9% |
| Robert Thomas | 26.6% |
| Jonatan Berggren | 26.3% |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 21.8% |
| Pius Suter | 19.3% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 42.9% |
| Brayden Point | 39.4% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 37.9% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 25.5% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 22.0% |
First goal scorer predictions
St. Louis Blues
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Neighbours | 5.4% |
| Jonatan Berggren | 5.3% |
| Robert Thomas | 5.2% |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 3.7% |
| Pius Suter | 3.6% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel | 8.8% |
| Brayden Point | 8.1% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 7.5% |
| Anthony Cirelli | 4.6% |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 4.1% |
Blues vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Monday's game between the Lightning and Blues at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: St. Louis Blues vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Monday, December 22, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Blues on Monday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Blues vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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