Uruguay vs. Spain prediction, odds, props, World Cup 2026 picks [Group Stage]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's World Cup 2026 matchup between Uruguay and Spain, forming part of our World Cup 2026 predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model suggests a 14.5% chance of Uruguay winning, a 62.3% chance for Spain, and a 23.2% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 56.6% chance of staying under, with a 59.1% probability of at least one team keeping a clean sheet. In the win to nil market, Spain holds a 41.3% probability to win without conceding, with Uruguay given an 8.9% chance.

For bettors looking to cover multiple outcomes, the most likely double chance result is Spain to win or draw at 85.5%.

Spain vs. Uruguay odds

We have researched the best World Cup 2026 odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Uruguay	Spain	Draw
+550	-160	+280

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
+116	-140

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Uruguay vs. Spain picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Spain @ -160 via BetMGM
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ -140 via DraftKings
• Win to Nil: Spain @ +135 via BetMGM
• Double Chance: Uruguay or Spain @ -360 via FanDuel
• Both Teams To Score: No @ -132 via FanDuel

According to our World Cup 2026 best bets, the top play to make on this game is Spain to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Uruguay vs. Spain: Correct score and BTTS predictions

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 1-0 Spain win being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
Uruguay 0-1 Spain	15.4%
Uruguay 0-2 Spain	13.3%
Uruguay 1-1 Spain	10.6%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 40.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 59.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Uruguay vs. Spain player props: Anytime goal scorer predictions

Our World Cup 2026 player projections for Friday highlight the top candidates to score a goal in Uruguay-Spain:

Uruguay

• Darwin Nunez: 14.5% probability
• Agustin Canobbio: 10.0% probability
• Maxi Araujo: 9.6% probability
• Federico Valverde: 8.7% probability
• Rodrigo Bentancur: 4.2% probability

Spain

• Mikel Oyarzabal: 30.0% probability
• Lamine Yamal: 26.1% probability
• Dani Olmo: 19.1% probability
• Alex Baena: 15.9% probability
• Rodri : 9.2% probability

Uruguay vs. Spain game-day updates and essential details

Friday's FIFA World Cup matchup between Uruguay and Spain at Estadio Akron is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Uruguay vs. Spain
• Date: Friday, June 26, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Akron

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

DraftKings promo for Uruguay vs. Spain

If you're looking to get money down on Uruguay or Spain, we recommend DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users can bet $5 and receive $200 in bonus bets instantly.

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Uruguay has a 14.5% win probability on Friday, Spain has a 62.3% win probability, and there is a 23.2% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.