Southern Miss vs. Texas State prediction: Why Texas State is favored to win men's college basketball matchup [3/6/2026]

Texas State and Southern Miss will lock horns in men's college basketball action at Pensacola Bay Center on Friday, starting at 6:00 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced college basketball model projects Texas State as the most likely winner of the Southern Miss vs. Texas State game.

This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Southern Miss vs. Texas State prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's NCAA basketball matchup between Southern Miss and Texas State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Texas State a 56% chance of defeating Southern Miss. Our predicted final score has Texas State winning 72-71.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and Southern Miss and Texas State each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 140.5-point over/under has a 55% chance of going over.

Southern Miss vs. Texas State odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Southern Miss	Texas State
Spread	+1.5 (-105)	-1.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+110	-130
Total	o140.5 (-110)	u140.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Southern Miss vs. Texas State picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Southern Miss +1.5	-105
Moneyline	Texas State	-130
Total	Over 140.5	-110

According to our best men's college basketball bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 140.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Southern Miss vs. Texas State game-day updates and essential details

Friday's men's college basketball matchup between Texas State and Southern Miss at Pensacola Bay Center is scheduled to begin at 6:00 PM ET.

• Who: Southern Miss vs. Texas State
• Date: Friday, March 6, 2026
• Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
• Venue: Pensacola Bay Center

College basketball betting promos and codes

Make the most of Dimers' Southern Miss vs. Texas State predictions by exploring the below offers from Bet365 and BetMGM.

Bet365 Sportsbook

Join Bet365 Sportsbook! Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets win or lose with code "DIMERS".

BetMGM

Sign up to BetMGM with code "DIMERS" now to unlock their 'Up To $1500 in Bonus Bets Paid Back if your First Bet Does Not Win' offer.

Conclusion

We predict Texas State, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat Southern Miss on Friday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Southern Miss vs. Texas State insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.