USF vs. Louisville prediction: Louisville favored to win men's March Madness First Round matchup [3/19/2026]

Louisville will square off with USF in March Madness First Round action at KeyBank Center on Thursday, starting at 1:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven college basketball model predicts Louisville as the most likely winner of the USF vs. Louisville game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

USF vs. Louisville prediction: Who will win and advance to the Second Round?

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NCAAM Tournament game between USF and Louisville 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Louisville a 62% chance of beating South Florida. Our predicted final score has Louisville winning 81-78.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and South Florida and Louisville each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 160.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.

USF vs. Louisville odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	USF	Louisville
Spread	+3.5 (-106)	-3.5 (-105)
Moneyline	+142	-165
Total	o160.5 (-108)	u160.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

USF vs. Louisville picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	South Florida +3.5	-106
Moneyline	Louisville	-165
Total	Under 160.5	-110

According to our men's college basketball best bets, the top play to make on this game is Louisville to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

USF vs. Louisville game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's men's college basketball action between Louisville and USF at KeyBank Center is scheduled to begin at 1:30 PM ET.

• Who: South Florida vs. Louisville
• Date: Thursday, March 19, 2026
• Time: 1:30 PM ET/10:30AM PT
• Venue: KeyBank Center
• March Madness stage: First Round

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Conclusion

We predict Louisville, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat South Florida this men's March Madness First Round matchup.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate South Florida vs. Louisville insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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