SMU vs. Louisville prediction: Louisville favored to win men's college basketball matchup [3/11/2026]

Louisville and SMU are scheduled to meet in men's college basketball action at Spectrum Center on Wednesday, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven college basketball model projects Louisville as the most likely winner of the SMU vs. Louisville game.

This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

SMU vs. Louisville prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Wednesday's NCAA basketball matchup between SMU and Louisville 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Louisville a 77% chance of defeating SMU. Our predicted final score has Louisville winning 84-75.

According to our model, Louisville (-6.5) has a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the 163.5-point over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.

SMU vs. Louisville odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	SMU	Louisville
Spread	+6.5 (-105)	-6.5 (-110)
Moneyline	+245	-275
Total	o163.5 (-115)	u163.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

SMU vs. Louisville picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Louisville -6.5	-110
Moneyline	Louisville	-275
Total	Under 163.5	-105

According to our men's college basketball best bets, the top play to make on this game is Louisville -6.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

SMU vs. Louisville game-day updates and essential details

Wednesday's men's college basketball matchup between Louisville and SMU at Spectrum Center is scheduled to commence at 2:30 PM ET.

• Who: SMU vs. Louisville
• Date: Wednesday, March 11, 2026
• Time: 2:30 PM ET/11:30AM PT
• Venue: Spectrum Center

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Conclusion

We predict Louisville, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat SMU on Wednesday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate SMU vs. Louisville insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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