Siena vs. Duke prediction: Duke favored to win men's March Madness First Round matchup [3/19/2026]

Duke will square off with Siena in March Madness First Round action at Bon Secours Wellness Arena on Thursday, starting at 2:50 PM ET.

For this First Round matchup, Duke—the best team in college basketball led by star Cameron Boozer— take on Kentucky, a $22 million roster undone by injuries.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts Duke as the most likely winner of the Siena vs. Duke game.

This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

Siena vs. Duke prediction: Who will win and advance to the Second Round?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NCAAM Tournament matchup between Siena and Duke 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Duke a 99% chance of beating Siena. Our predicted final score has Duke winning 84-56.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and Siena and Duke each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 136.5 points has a 55% chance of going over.

Siena vs. Duke odds

We have sourced the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Siena vs. Duke picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: