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Sharks vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [12/11/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get San Jose Sharks vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Toronto Maple Leafs will take on the San Jose Sharks in NHL action at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday, commencing at 7:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Maple Leafs as the most likely winner of the Sharks vs. Maple Leafs game.
This article offers a closer look at Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Sharks and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Maple Leafs a 65% chance of defeating the Sharks.
According to our model, the Sharks (+1.5) have a 55% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Sharks | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-140) | -1.5 (+124) |
| Moneyline | +172 | -205 |
| Total | o6.5 (+106) | u6.5 (-125) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs -1.5 | +124 |
| Moneyline | Sharks | +172 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -125 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Maple Leafs -1.5 at the spread.
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Sharks vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Sharks vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Matthews a 48.0% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 10.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
San Jose Sharks
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 36.6% |
| Will Smith | 30.4% |
| Tyler Toffoli | 25.8% |
| William Eklund | 24.4% |
| Adam Gaudette | 22.2% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 48.0% |
| John Tavares | 38.7% |
| William Nylander | 38.3% |
| Matthew Knies | 33.4% |
| Easton Cowan | 17.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
San Jose Sharks
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | 7.8% |
| Will Smith | 6.1% |
| Tyler Toffoli | 4.6% |
| William Eklund | 4.2% |
| Adam Gaudette | 3.5% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 10.8% |
| William Nylander | 8.0% |
| John Tavares | 7.5% |
| Matthew Knies | 6.3% |
| Easton Cowan | 3.1% |
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's matchup between the Maple Leafs and Sharks at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: San Jose Sharks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 65% win probability, will likely beat the Sharks on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Sharks vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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