Sharks vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [12/11/2025]

The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the San Jose Sharks in NHL action at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Maple Leafs as the most likely winner of the Sharks vs. Maple Leafs game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Sharks and Maple Leafs 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Maple Leafs a 64% chance of defeating the Sharks.

According to our model, the Sharks (+1.5) have a 57% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Sharks	Maple Leafs
Puck Line	+1.5 (-145)	-1.5 (+130)
Moneyline	+170	-192
Total	o6 (-118)	u6 (-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Maple Leafs -1.5	+130
Moneyline	Maple Leafs	-192
Total	Under 6	-102

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6 total goals.

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Sharks vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Sharks vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 49.2% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 10.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

San Jose Sharks

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Macklin Celebrini	33.5%
Will Smith	27.5%
Tyler Toffoli	22.7%
William Eklund	22.2%
Jeff Skinner	21.0%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	49.2%
John Tavares	39.5%
William Nylander	38.6%
Matthew Knies	32.3%
Easton Cowan	17.8%

First goal scorer predictions

San Jose Sharks

Player	First Goal Probability
Macklin Celebrini	7.0%
Will Smith	5.5%
Tyler Toffoli	4.3%
William Eklund	4.3%
Jeff Skinner	3.6%

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player	First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews	10.8%
John Tavares	8.1%
William Nylander	7.5%
Matthew Knies	6.2%
Easton Cowan	2.9%

Sharks vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's action between the Maple Leafs and Sharks at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: San Jose Sharks vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
• Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Sharks on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Sharks vs. Maple Leafs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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