Padres vs. Red Sox prediction: Boston favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [4/5/2026]

The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres will lock horns in MLB action at Fenway Park on Sunday, starting at 1:35 PM ET.

The Red Sox will have Ranger Suarez (0-1, 8.31 ERA) as their starting pitcher, while the Padres are going with Walker Buehler (0-1, 6.75 ERA).

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven MLB model predicts the Red Sox as the most likely winner of the Padres vs. Red Sox game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Padres vs. Red Sox prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Padres and Red Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Red Sox a 58% chance of beating the Padres.

According to our model, the Padres (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of nine runs has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Padres vs. Red Sox odds [4/5/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Padres vs. Red Sox picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: