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Spurs vs. Pacers prediction: Why San Antonio is favored to win Friday's NBA matchup [1/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get San Antonio Spurs vs Indiana Pacers predictions for NBA Friday.
The Indiana Pacers will take on the San Antonio Spurs in NBA action at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday, starting at 7:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Spurs vs. Pacers game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pacers lineup will feature players like Pascal Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard, while the Spurs will look to De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Keldon Johnson.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Spurs vs. Pacers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Pacers 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Spurs a 68% chance of defeating the Pacers. Our predicted final score has the Spurs winning 121-116.
According to our model, the Spurs (-5.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 238.5-point over/under has a 52% chance of staying under.
Spurs vs. Pacers odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Spurs | Pacers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-105) | +5.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -196 | +170 |
| Total | o238.5 (-106) | u238.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Spurs vs. Pacers picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Spurs -5.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Spurs | -196 |
| Total | Under 238.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Spurs to win.
Spurs vs. Pacers player props
Looking for Spurs vs. Pacers NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
De'Aaron Fox is expected to lead the Spurs with 24 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists, while Pascal Siakam is projected to have 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists for the Pacers.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Spurs prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Spurs are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | 24 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 43 |
| Stephon Castle | 21 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 42 |
| Keldon Johnson | 15 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 30 |
| J. Champagnie | 13 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 28 |
| Harrison Barnes | 13 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
Pacers prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pacers:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 23 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 42 |
| B. Mathurin | 19 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 17 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 35 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 15 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 28 |
| T.J. McConnell | 10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 24 |
Spurs vs. Pacers game-day updates and essential details
Friday's matchup between the Pacers and Spurs at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Conclusion
We predict the Spurs, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat the Pacers on Friday, with De'Aaron Fox projected for a game-high 43 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Spurs vs. Pacers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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