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Ravens vs. Bengals: Why the data says to ladder this Derrick Henry prop on Sunday
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
Our predictive NFL model has identified a player prop bet in Ravens vs. Bengals with good value and "ladder play" potential thanks to our data-backed simulations.
We've reached the home stretch of the NFL season with just four weeks to go before the playoffs.
While much of the attention is on playoff races, the Chiefs' potential elimination and Philip Rivers' return in the Week 15 NFL schedule, the Dimers data in the AFC North showdown between the Bengals and Ravens identifies a specific Derrick Henry NFL player prop that sets up another ladder opportunity Sunday, December 14.
Last week, this exact approach paid off with our James Cook prop bet, as we identified a matchup where the sportsbooks set an inefficient line. This week, we’re going back to the well by attacking that same vulnerability against the Bengals again.
The key to winning consistently in the NFL isn’t predicting every drive or final score. It’s identifying when the math doesn’t line up with the matchup and trusting the data to exploit it.
That’s why we’re zeroing in on one Derrick Henry prop as Baltimore hosts Cincinnati, while also expanding into plus-money ladder options built off the same edge.
How we found this high-value Bengals vs. Ravens prop
This is another example of why Dimers Pro is essential for serious NFL bettors. The initial signal on Derrick Henry came directly from the NFL Player Projections Hub, a Dimers Pro exclusive that flagged this matchup as eerily similar to the one that fueled our James Cook ladder last week.
Our projections are powered by tens of thousands of simulations for every NFL game, designed to surface +EV opportunities that rarely jump off the page at first glance. These inefficiencies show up every week — but without tools like Dimers Pro, they’re easy to miss.
Our Bengals vs. Ravens Derrick Henry prop and ladder target
The Bet: Derrick Henry (Ravens) over 9.5 Receiving Yards
Derrick Henry profiles as a strong ladder target in Bengals vs. Ravens, and the combination of recent usage, matchup context, and Dimers’ projection makes his receiving yardage line stand out immediately.
Henry’s receiving yards line is set at 9.5 on DraftKings, while the Dimers model projects him for 1.3 receptions and 12.3 receiving yards. That gap alone puts his over 9.5 firmly in +EV territory, even before considering the ladder upside on alternate lines.
Why ladder this prop
If you're not looking to go beyond the Dimers' projections, then Henry's over 9.5 is a good standalone play, but if you're interested in the ladder, the matchup points to high potential.
Henry’s receiving production has quietly surged with Lamar Jackson back under center. After clearing this line in two of his first four games, Henry went under in five straight contests that largely came without Jackson, when Baltimore’s passing game and Henry’s checkdown opportunities were far more limited. Since then, the role has flipped.
Henry has now gone over his receiving yards line in three of his last four games, posting 19, 24, and 44 receiving yards and cruising past his standard number each time. Five times this season, he’s cleared 9.5 receiving yards on a single catch, every game in which he's gone over.
The usage is there as well. Henry has seen 2+ targets in four of his last five games, showing consistent, if low-end volume. Baltimore has shown a clear willingness to get him involved as a receiver, especially when defenses sell out to stop the run or overcommit to Lamar Jackson on early downs.
Matchup-wise, there are few better in the NFL. Cincinnati allows the third-most receiving yards to backs this season at 46.6 per game, seeing a season-long trend of dominance by opposing RBs: James Cook (31 rec yards), Henry in his previous game vs. Baltimore (44), Jaylen Warren (31), Josh Jacobs (57), Jahmyr Gibbs (33), Dylan Sampson (64), and Kenneth Gainwell (81).
All of the signals align here for Derrick Henry, starting with the Dimers projection and supported by recent results and usage trends.
Here's an example of how to tackle the Derrick Henry ladder in Week 15.
These dollar amounts are for reference only as an example of how to stagger a wager across the full ladder - please remember to gamble responsibly and bet only what suits your strategy.
| Derrick Henry Receiving Yards | Odds | Stake | Payout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 9.5 | -114 | $25 | $46.62 |
| 15+ | +148 | $15 | $37.20 |
| 25+ | +305 | $10 | $40.50 |
| 40+ | +760 | $5 | $43.00 |
| 50+ | +1380 | $3 | $44.40 |
Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season
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- NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
- The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
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Responsible Gambling
Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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