Penguins vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [12/4/2025]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will take on the Pittsburgh Penguins in NHL action at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, beginning at 7:00PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Penguins vs. Lightning game.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Penguins vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Penguins and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 60% chance of beating the Penguins.

According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 62% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 54% chance of staying under.

Penguins vs. Lightning odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Penguins	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-175)	-1.5 (+150)
Moneyline	+135	-155
Total	o6.5 (-105)	u6.5 (-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Penguins vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Penguins +1.5	-175
Moneyline	Lightning	-155
Total	Under 6.5	-110

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

Penguins vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 45.1% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.5% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Sidney Crosby	34.9%
Bryan Rust	29.6%
Anthony Mantha	24.4%
Thomas Novak	22.5%
Evgeni Malkin	22.0%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	45.1%
Brandon Hagel	39.4%
Nikita Kucherov	38.7%
Anthony Cirelli	29.0%
Nick Paul	24.3%

First goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player	First Goal Probability
Sidney Crosby	6.7%
Bryan Rust	5.2%
Thomas Novak	4.1%
Anthony Mantha	3.9%
Evgeni Malkin	3.8%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	9.5%
Brandon Hagel	8.3%
Nikita Kucherov	7.6%
Anthony Cirelli	5.8%
Nick Paul	4.3%

Penguins vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's matchup between the Lightning and Penguins at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Thursday, December 4, 2025
• Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 60% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Thursday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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