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Penguins vs. Avalanche prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [3/16/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Pittsburgh Penguins vs Colorado Avalanche predictions for NHL Monday.
NHL action continues on Monday at 9:30 PM ET as the Pittsburgh Penguins lock horns with the Colorado Avalanche at Ball Arena.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced NHL model predicts the Avalanche as the most likely winner of the Penguins vs. Avalanche game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Penguins vs. Avs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Monday's NHL game between the Penguins and Avalanche 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Avalanche a 64% chance of beating the Penguins.
According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 57% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 51% chance of staying under.
Penguins vs. Avalanche odds
We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Penguins | Avalanche |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-130) | -1.5 (+110) |
| Moneyline | +190 | -218 |
| Total | o6.5 (-120) | u6.5 (+100) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Penguins vs. Avalanche picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Penguins +1.5 | -130 |
| Moneyline | Penguins | +190 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | +100 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Penguins vs. Avalanche player props
Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Avalanche?
According to our model, Martin Necas is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Avalanche.
Our projections give Necas a 41.5% chance of scoring a goal at Ball Arena, while the star is an 8.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 31.8% |
| Rickard Rakell | 29.7% |
| Yegor Chinakhov | 27.5% |
| Anthony Mantha | 26.5% |
| Thomas Novak | 23.6% |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Martin Necas | 41.5% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 36.9% |
| Brock Nelson | 36.1% |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 32.6% |
| Nazem Kadri | 31.4% |
First goal scorer predictions
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Bryan Rust | 6.4% |
| Rickard Rakell | 5.5% |
| Anthony Mantha | 5.3% |
| Yegor Chinakhov | 4.8% |
| Thomas Novak | 4.1% |
Colorado Avalanche
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Martin Necas | 8.4% |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 7.6% |
| Brock Nelson | 6.6% |
| Nazem Kadri | 6.1% |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 5.9% |
Penguins vs. Avs game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Avalanche and Penguins at Ball Arena is scheduled to start at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Colorado Avalanche
- Date: Monday, March 16, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Ball Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Avalanche, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins on Monday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Penguins vs. Avalanche insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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