Why Dimers isn’t buying a Jarrett Stidham fairytale (and why we’re betting the UNDER)

As we head into Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, the storyline practically writes itself.

After vanquishing the beast of Josh Allen in overtime last Sunday, Bo Nix goes down. Emotions of Broncos fans turn from pure ecstasy to agony and worry. And suddenly, Jarrett Stidham - a former Patriot, longtime backup, borderline forgotten man - is thrust into the biggest Denver game in a decade with a Super Bowl berth on the line.

It’s the kind of unexpected hero setup the NFL marketing team dreams of (apart from a Mahomes vs. Allen matchup). The cameras are going love it. It will be the most talked about point on the pre-game broadcast. Between now and Sunday we're likely to hear every single Jarrett Stidham fact known to man, including stuff that Stidham himself might not even know.

Could you imagine if he really pulled this off? If the backup QB who hasn't thrown a single pass since 2023 overcame the Patriots to take his team to the Super Bowl? Move over Kurt Warner, there might just be another life story turned into a movie.

But the Oscars are in March, and Jarrett Stidham is no Timothee Chalamet, and Dimers doesn’t care about Hollywood-style scripts.

We care about what the numbers say is most likely to happen. 

And right now? Our data is telling us one thing loud and clear.

AFC Championship Game Best Bet:

Bet: Jarrett Stidham UNDER 20.5 Pass Completions

• Dimers NFL player projection: 19 completions
• Market line: 20.5 completions
• Best odds at time of publishing: -130 (BetMGM)
• Dimers edge: 4.7%
• Sweet spot: Dimers model has returned a 16.7% ROI on pass completions bets in this edge range this season

Why Dimers Likes Stidham to Stay Under 19.5 Completions

1.) This is not a “warm-up” spot

Stidham isn’t stepping into some low-pressure Week 6 matchup with a full playbook and a runway to get comfortable.

This is the AFC Championship Game.

And historically, when quarterbacks get thrown into the deep end — especially without recent starts — teams tend to simplify things:

• shorter concepts
• slower pace
• fewer high-volume dropbacks
• more reliance on defense + field position

That’s not the recipe for stacking completions.

2.) Completions are about rhythm — and Stidham doesn’t have it

Completions props can look “safe” because they don’t require touchdowns or huge yards.

But they do require consistency:

• converting early downs
• avoiding sacks
• staying ahead of the chains
• sustaining drives

A couple stalled possessions or negative plays can sink an over fast, even if a QB is throwing plenty. Stidham hasn't thrown a meaningul pass since the 2023 season, and his career history shows a long-line of starts in dead rubbers at the end of a team's regular season when they no longer have playoff hopes and ice their QB1. This is a big step up to say the least.

3.) The Dimers edge is real — and it’s in our sweet spot

This is the part bettors should care about most.

The Stidham under isn’t just a “gut feel” or a “hot take.”

It’s landing in one of the ranges our model has performed best in all season:

✅ Dimers edge: 4.7%
✅ Sweet spot performance: 16.7% ROI on pass completions bets in this edge range this season

That’s exactly the kind of number-driven gap we look for when tagging a play as a best bet.

Where to find this pick (and all the supporting data)

You can always find these projections on Dimers — but the easiest way to stay on top of our best edges is straight through the Dimers app.

In the app, you can quickly check:

• our projections vs. the market line
• the edge percentage
• the best available odds
• and which bets are landing in our highest-performing ranges

If you’re betting player props seriously, it’s one of the cleanest ways to get the number, confirm the edge, and fire before the line moves.

Access to the Dimers app is included with a Dimers Pro subscription at no charge. Download now on iOS and Android to get full access to all of the tools Dimers has to offer.

Great story… but we’re taking the under

Jarrett Stidham stepping into the spotlight is a fun storyline — and if he plays well, the broadcast will turn it into a legend by halftime.

The data says this is a tough spot, the line is a little inflated by narrative, and Dimers has a measurable edge in a range that’s been returning consistently this season.

Best Bet: Jarrett Stidham UNDER 20.5 Pass Completions (-130 BetMGM)

Dimers projection: 19
Dimers edge: 4.7%
Sweet spot ROI this season: 16.7%

Numbers over noise.