Parlay these Bills vs. Patriots player props at +500 odds for Sunday Night Football betting

It's Week 5 in the NFL and we're wrapping up NFL Sunday with another Primetime Parlay built with the Dimers model for tonight's Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Sunday Night Football matchup on October 5, 2025.

This is our biggest NFL season yet on Dimers, with the launch of our brand-new NFL Player Projections Hub, complete with boxscores and fantasy projections, our improved NFL models and the rollout of our new Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

To close out NFL Sunday, we're using our model's Sunday Night Football predictions to build a +375 Same game parlay boosted to +500 over on bet365, where new users can claim a $200 bonus using the bet365 bonus code DIMERS.

+500 Bills vs. Patriots NFL Same Game Parlay Picks (Boosted from +375)

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our three-leg same game parlay in Bills vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football, October 5.

MORE: Bills vs. Patriots SNF Full Game Betting Preview

Leg 1: Dalton Kincaid 30+ Receiving Yards

First up is a guy who's come through for us multiple times this season, especially in primetime games and that's Bills TE Dalton Kincaid.

We need him to pick up at least 30 receiving yards on SNF vs. the Patriots and his projection of 37.8 yards from the Dimers model gives him the upside we're looking for.

Even better, Kincaid has nearly hit this in 4/4 games this season, only barely going under when he caught 1 of 2 targets for 28 yards in Week 4 vs. the Saints

He has long catches of 18+ yards in every game and at least 4 receptions in his other 3 - he's consistent and gets chunk plays.

The Patriots have allowed an average of 63 receiving yards to tight ends so far this season, lining Kincaid up with a good matchup on primetime once again.

RELATED: Prime Time Prop Bet for Patriots at Bills

Leg 2: Hunter Henry 40+ Receiving Yards

We're going to stick with the tight end position  for our second leg as we task Hunter Henry of the Patriots to tally up at least 40 receiving yards for the third time in five games this season, after going under by 1 yard last week.

Henry draws a projection of 42.5 receiving yards from the Dimers model which puts him as the second-highest receiving output on the Patriots in this game, supported by Henry's status as the team's second-leading receiver through four games, just 9 yards below Stefon Diggs' 213.

He's smashed this in two games with 66 and 90 and also has tallied up chunk plays of 18, 27 and 31 this season.

While the Bills haven't given up much to tight ends, there's more to it under the surface - a combined 80 yards passing by the Jets, 126 passing by the Saints, a Dolphins team that doesn't target tight ends - the only matchup that sticks out is a quite TE day by the Ravens in 40-point game.

We'll back Henry's production and the model's output in this one.

MORE: The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast Week 5 NFL Preview

Leg 3: James Cook Anytime TD Scorer

As always, we'll close out with our favorite TD scorer in this game, and we're going with our highest probability in this game with Bills RB James Cook.

Cook is a touchdown machine, racking up five scores with at least one in every game thus far.

He's got tons of volume with 22+ touches in his past three games and should be set up for a similar workload vs. this Patriots team.

His 60.4% probability is more than 12% higher than the next player, his teammate and only real competition for rushing score, Josh Allen, and gets a 14.2% probability to punch in the first TD of the game.

Odd correct at publishing and subject to change.

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