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Senators vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [10/9/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Ottawa Senators vs Tampa Bay Lightning predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Ottawa Senators will lock horns in the NHL at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Lightning as the most likely winner of today's game.
For expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks, visit our interactive Senators vs. Lightning predictions page.
Senators vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win, cover the puck line?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL matchup between the Senators and Lightning 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Lightning a 61% chance of defeating the Senators.
According to our model, the Senators (+1.5) have a 60% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6 goals has a 51% chance of staying under.
Senators vs. Lightning odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Senators | Lightning |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-160) | -1.5 (+142) |
| Moneyline | +150 | -176 |
| Total | o6 (-115) | u6 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
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Senators vs. Lightning picks and best bets
Our model's strongest edge in today's Senators vs. Lightning matchup is on the puck line.
Our expert predictions, aligned with the current odds, reveal the best NHL picks and NHL best bets for every game throughout the season.
Unlimited access to our complete set of picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.
Senators vs. Lightning player props
Who will score the first goal in Senators vs. Lightning?
According to our model, Tampa Bay's Brayden Point is most likely to score the first goal in Senators vs. Lightning.
Our projections give Point a 9.5% chance of scoring the first goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the Lightning star is a 42.0% chance of registering an anytime goal.
First goal scorer predictions
Ottawa Senators
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 6.5% |
| Tim Stutzle | 5.6% |
| Shane Pinto | 4.4% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 9.5% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 8.0% |
| Jake Guentzel | 7.8% |
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Ottawa Senators
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk | 31.8% |
| Tim Stutzle | 28.4% |
| Shane Pinto | 22.9% |
Tampa Bay Lightning
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Brayden Point | 42.0% |
| Jake Guentzel | 39.6% |
| Nikita Kucherov | 37.5% |
Senators vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Lightning and Senators at Benchmark International Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Ottawa Senators vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
- Date: Thursday, October 9, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Dimers' in-depth preview of Thursday's Senators vs. Lightning matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.
Before making any Senators vs. Lightning picks, be sure to check out the latest NHL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.
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Conclusion
We predict the Lightning, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Senators on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Senators vs. Lightning insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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More on NHL
Stay up-to-date with the latest NHL news and parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds offer the most up-to-date probabilities for the Stanley Cup title.
Make the most of your sports betting experience by exploring our comprehensive list of US betting apps, and the latest sportsbooks in 2025, ensuring you never miss a top new-user deal.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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