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Senators vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Senators vs. Lightning NHL game on October 9, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
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NHL
Senators
5
4
Oct 9, 11PM Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Oct 9, 11PM Benchmark International Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Senators
1225
Lightning
3014
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
SenatorsOTT
Win %
100%
0%
LightningTB
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Senators
1225
Lightning
3014
P3 19:46 Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Nick Jensen
P3 19:32 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
P3 19:12 Goal scored by Claude Giroux
P3 18:44 Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 15:57 Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 14:18 Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 12:03 Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Brady Tkachuk
P3 11:57 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
P3 11:42 Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 10:38 Shot on goal by Curtis Douglas saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 08:45 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 07:08 Artem Zub shot blocked by Conor Geekie
P3 05:55 Thomas Chabot shot blocked by teammate
P3 04:54 Donovan Sebrango shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 04:46 Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 04:17 Power play - Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P3 04:17 Power play - Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 04:01 Power play - Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 02:51 Power play - Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 02:12 Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:47
Stoppage - Referee or Linesperson - Video Review
P3 19:46
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
P3 19:46
SHOT
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Nick Jensen
P3 19:32
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by teammate
P3 19:12
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
P3 19:12
GOAL
Goal scored by Claude Giroux
5-3
P3 19:03
Claude Giroux credited with hit on Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P3 18:51
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P3 18:51
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
P3 18:51
Stoppage
P3 18:46
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Michael Amadio in offensive zone
P3 18:46
Stoppage - Icing
P3 18:44
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:13
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
P3 17:35
Lars Eller won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P3 17:35
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 16:53
Takeaway by Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P3 15:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 15:41
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
P3 15:41
Stoppage - High Stick
P3 15:07
Ridly Greig won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
P3 14:18
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 12:43
Darren Raddysh credited with hit on Shane Pinto in defensive zone
P3 12:28
Nick Jensen credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
P3 12:17
Brayden Point won faceoff against Ridly Greig in defensive zone
P3 12:17
Stoppage
P3 12:03
SHOT
Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Brady Tkachuk
P3 11:57
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
P3 11:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 11:17
Mitchell Chaffee credited with hit on Nikolas Matinpalo in offensive zone
P3 10:44
Mitchell Chaffee credited with hit on Jake Sanderson in offensive zone
P3 10:40
Pontus Holmberg won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
P3 10:40
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P3 10:38
SHOT
Shot on goal by Curtis Douglas saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 09:50
Mitchell Chaffee credited with hit on Ridly Greig in offensive zone
P3 09:49
Giveaway by Ridly Greig in defensive zone
P3 09:08
Giveaway by Victor Hedman in defensive zone
P3 08:47
Brayden Point won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in defensive zone
P3 08:45
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 08:23
Brayden Point won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in offensive zone
P3 08:23
Stoppage - Icing
P3 07:37
Giveaway by Nick Cousins in defensive zone
P3 07:08
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Conor Geekie
P3 06:01
Giveaway by Nikita Kucherov in neutral zone
P3 05:55
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by teammate
P3 05:15
Brady Tkachuk credited with hit on Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
P3 04:54
SHOT
Donovan Sebrango shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 04:46
Darren Raddysh credited with hit on Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
P3 04:46
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P3 04:17
SHOT
Power play - Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P3 04:17
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Linus Ullmark
P3 04:01
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 03:23
Power play - Giveaway by Victor Hedman in offensive zone
P3 02:51
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 02:23
Shorthanded - Lars Eller won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P3 02:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 02:09
Claude Giroux won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
P3 02:09
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P3 02:06
SHOT
Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P3 01:47
Conor Geekie credited with hit on Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
P3 01:34
Conor Geekie credited with hit on Donovan Sebrango in defensive zone
P3 01:31
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in offensive zone
P3 01:31
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P3 01:28
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lars Eller saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 01:05
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 00:44
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Jake Sanderson
P3 00:42
Brady Tkachuk credited with hit on Mitchell Chaffee in defensive zone
P3 00:38
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 00:00
Power play - Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 19:57
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Thomas Chabot
P2 18:59
Shorthanded - Takeaway by Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
P2 18:31
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
P2 18:31
Penalty to Mitchell Chaffee 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Jake Sanderson)
P2 18:03
Giveaway by Mitchell Chaffee in defensive zone
P2 17:38
Giveaway by Oliver Bjorkstrand in offensive zone
P2 17:29
SHOT
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by Lars Eller
P2 17:01
Giveaway by Linus Ullmark in defensive zone
P2 16:51
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Lars Eller in defensive zone
P2 16:51
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 16:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 16:45
Giveaway by Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
P2 16:34
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
P2 16:34
Stoppage - Puck Frozen - TV timeout
P2 16:32
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
P2 16:32
Stoppage - Icing
P2 15:58
SHOT
Nikolas Matinpalo shot blocked by Victor Hedman
P2 15:43
SHOT
Shot missed by Artem Zub
P2 15:36
SHOT
Shot missed by Artem Zub
P2 15:21
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Brayden Point
P2 15:09
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
P2 14:56
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 14:19
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in defensive zone
P2 14:19
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 14:17
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 14:14
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in offensive zone
P2 14:14
Stoppage - Icing
P2 13:48
Lars Eller won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
P2 13:48
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
P2 13:46
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P2 13:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
P2 12:30
SHOT
Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P2 12:27
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P2 11:45
Giveaway by Nick Jensen in defensive zone
P2 11:30
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 11:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 11:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P2 10:52
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P2 09:47
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Claude Giroux
P2 09:04
SHOT
Power play - David Perron shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P2 08:52
Power play - Claude Giroux won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
P2 08:52
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 08:50
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 08:49
SHOT
Power play - Tim Stutzle shot blocked by teammate
P2 07:53
Power play - Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P2 07:52
SHOT
Shot on goal by David Perron saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 06:58
SHOT
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg
P2 06:45
Lars Eller won faceoff against Conor Geekie in defensive zone
P2 06:45
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
P2 06:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 06:35
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 06:02
SHOT
Shot missed by Shane Pinto
P2 05:55
SHOT
Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 05:03
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 04:35
SHOT
Shot missed by Conor Geekie
P2 04:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 04:16
SHOT
Pontus Holmberg shot blocked by Dylan Cozens
P2 04:08
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
P2 04:08
Stoppage - Icing
P2 03:42
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Dylan Cozens in offensive zone
P2 03:42
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 03:39
SHOT
Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Thomas Chabot
P2 03:09
SHOT
Thomas Chabot shot blocked by teammate
P2 03:06
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P2 03:06
Stoppage - Icing
P2 02:58
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Sanderson
P2 02:42
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P2 02:41
Giveaway by Jake Sanderson in defensive zone
P2 02:37
Giveaway by Brayden Point in offensive zone
P2 01:50
Lars Eller won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
P2 01:50
Stoppage - Icing
P2 01:16
David Perron credited with hit on Max Crozier in defensive zone
P2 01:12
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Linus Ullmark
P2 01:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Lightning
P2 01:10
Michael Amadio credited with hit on Emil Lilleberg in defensive zone
P2 00:59
Yanni Gourde credited with hit on Thomas Chabot in offensive zone
P2 00:58
Giveaway by Thomas Chabot in defensive zone
P2 00:42
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P2 00:39
SHOT
Shot on goal by Artem Zub saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 00:20
Fabian Zetterlund credited with hit on Victor Hedman in offensive zone
P2 00:15
SHOT
Jake Sanderson shot blocked by teammate
P2 00:14
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
P2 00:14
Stoppage - Icing
P2 00:00
Brayden Point won faceoff against Shane Pinto in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:53
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ryan McDonagh saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 19:50
Conor Geekie won faceoff against Shane Pinto in offensive zone
P1 19:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 19:34
SHOT
Nikolas Matinpalo shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P1 19:28
SHOT
Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Victor Hedman
P1 18:11
SHOT
Jake Sanderson shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
P1 17:55
Artem Zub credited with hit on Oliver Bjorkstrand in offensive zone
P1 17:52
Lars Eller won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
P1 17:52
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 17:50
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Cousins saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 17:35
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 17:08
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Claude Giroux in defensive zone
P1 17:08
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 17:04
SHOT
Power play - Claude Giroux shot blocked by teammate
P1 16:57
SHOT
Power play - Claude Giroux shot blocked by teammate
P1 16:16
Shorthanded - Takeaway by Ryan McDonagh in defensive zone
P1 16:01
SHOT
Power play - Dylan Cozens shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P1 15:53
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Dylan Cozens saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 15:19
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in defensive zone
P1 15:19
Stoppage - TV timeout
P1 15:19
Penalty to Pontus Holmberg 2 minutes for Holding (Drawn by Fabian Zetterlund)
P1 14:46
Pontus Holmberg won faceoff against Tim Stutzle in neutral zone
P1 14:45
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P1 14:33
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 14:20
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P1 14:02
Power play - Takeaway by Victor Hedman in defensive zone
P1 13:47
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 13:18
Shorthanded - Shane Pinto won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
P1 13:10
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 12:58
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Ridly Greig in offensive zone
P1 12:38
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P1 12:38
Penalty to Emil Lilleberg 5 minutes for Fighting (Drawn by Donovan Sebrango)
P1 12:38
Penalty to Donovan Sebrango 2 minutes for Misconduct
P1 12:34
Shorthanded - Lars Eller won faceoff against Conor Geekie in neutral zone
P1 12:34
Penalty to Brady Tkachuk 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Brandon Hagel)
P1 12:34
Penalty to Anthony Cirelli 2 minutes for Misconduct (Drawn by Thomas Chabot)
P1 12:34
Penalty to Thomas Chabot 2 minutes for Misconduct
P1 12:34
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 12:32
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 12:18
SHOT
Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
P1 12:12
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P1 11:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mitchell Chaffee saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 11:20
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 10:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Max Crozier saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 10:42
Giveaway by Nick Cousins in offensive zone
P1 10:18
Lars Eller won faceoff against Conor Geekie in neutral zone
P1 10:16
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Dylan Cozens
P1 09:25
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Jake Sanderson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 09:10
Power play - Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P1 08:59
SHOT
Tim Stutzle shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
P1 08:46
Brady Tkachuk won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P1 08:46
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
P1 08:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brady Tkachuk saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 07:59
Lars Eller won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
P1 07:59
Stoppage - Icing
P1 07:21
SHOT
Artem Zub shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P1 07:00
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Claude Giroux in neutral zone
P1 06:59
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Nikolas Matinpalo
P1 06:59
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lightning saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 06:32
SHOT
Shot missed by Brady Tkachuk
P1 05:35
Pontus Holmberg won faceoff against Lars Eller in neutral zone
P1 05:33
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P1 05:03
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 04:45
Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
P1 04:45
Penalty to Dylan Cozens 2 minutes for Holding
P1 04:42
SHOT
Shot missed by Max Crozier
P1 04:32
Giveaway by Ryan McDonagh in defensive zone
P1 03:51
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Brady Tkachuk in neutral zone
P1 03:51
Stoppage - Offside
P1 03:45
Tim Stutzle won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
P1 03:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ridly Greig saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 02:34
SHOT
Shot on goal by Emil Lilleberg saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 02:34
SHOT
Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
P1 02:26
Conor Geekie won faceoff against Lars Eller in offensive zone
P1 01:51
SHOT
Victor Hedman shot blocked by Donovan Sebrango
P1 01:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Linus Ullmark
P1 00:57
Dylan Cozens won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
P1 00:57
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 00:55
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Chabot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 00:47
SHOT
Shot on goal by Tim Stutzle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 00:00
Shane Pinto won faceoff against Brayden Point in neutral zone
P1 00:00
Game Setup.
Stats
Senators
 STATS
Lightning
34Shots on Goal25
55%Faceoff Win %46%
4/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
20Penalty Infraction Mins22
51Hits49
10Shots Blocked18
13Giveaways16
SenatorsOTT
LightningTB
34Shots on Goal25
55%Faceoff Win %46%
4/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 3/2
20Penalty Infraction Mins22
51Hits49
10Shots Blocked18
13Giveaways16

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Senators vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Senators vs. Lightning
  • Date: Thursday, October 9, 2025
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Senators +155, Lightning -176

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Senators: 39%
  • Lightning: 61%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Senators a win probability of 39%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 61%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Senators in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Senators vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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