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Thunder vs. Spurs prediction: San Antonio to win, Victor Wembanyama projected for 23 points in Wednesday's NBA game [2/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs predictions for NBA Wednesday.
NBA action continues on Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET as the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the favored San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Spurs game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Spurs lineup will feature stars like Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle, while the Thunder will rely on Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe and Kenrich Williams.
This article offers further insights into Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Spurs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NBA game between the Thunder and Spurs 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Spurs a 77% chance of beating the Thunder. Our predicted final score has the Spurs winning 114-106.
According to our model, the Thunder (+9.5) have a 55% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 221.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Thunder vs. Spurs odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +9.5 (-105) | -9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +330 | -410 |
| Total | o221.5 (-108) | u221.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Spurs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Thunder +9.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Thunder | +330 |
| Total | Over 221.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Thunder +9.5 at the spread.
Thunder vs. Spurs player props
Looking for Oklahoma City vs. San Antonio NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Frost Bank Center.
Aaron Wiggins is expected to lead the Thunder with 17 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists, while Victor Wembanyama is projected to have 23 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assists for the Spurs.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wiggins | 17 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 34 |
| Isaiah Joe | 17 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 31 |
| K. Williams | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 30 |
| Cason Wallace | 12 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 29 |
| Branden Carlson | 11 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
Spurs prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Spurs:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Wembanyama | 23 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 51 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 18 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 38 |
| Stephon Castle | 16 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 39 |
| Keldon Johnson | 15 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 28 |
| Devin Vassell | 14 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 27 |
Thunder vs. Spurs game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's game between the Spurs and Thunder at Frost Bank Center is scheduled to begin at 9:30 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Date: Wednesday, February 4, 2026
- Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
Conclusion
We predict the Spurs, with a 77% win probability, will likely beat the Thunder on Wednesday, with Victor Wembanyama projected for a game-high 51 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Spurs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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