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Thunder vs. Knicks prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Wednesday's NBA matchup [3/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs New York Knicks predictions for NBA Wednesday.
NBA action continues on Wednesday at 7:00 PM ET as the Oklahoma City Thunder lock horns with the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Knicks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Knicks lineup will feature players like Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby, while the Thunder will be led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Joe.
This article offers a closer look at Wednesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Knicks prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Thunder and Knicks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Thunder a 67% chance of beating the Knicks. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 112-107.
According to our model, the Thunder (-4.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 221.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Thunder vs. Knicks odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Knicks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4.5 (-105) | +4.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -175 | +150 |
| Total | o221.5 (-110) | u221.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Knicks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Thunder -4.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Thunder | -175 |
| Total | Under 221.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Wednesday, the top play to make on this game is Thunder to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Thunder vs. Knicks player props
NBA prop bets are an exciting way to wager on Wednesday's Thunder vs. Knicks matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Madison Square Garden.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Jalen Brunson is projected to have 25 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists for the Knicks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 53 |
| Chet Holmgren | 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 35 |
| Isaiah Joe | 10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 20 |
| Cason Wallace | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| Jared McCain | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
Knicks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Knicks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | 25 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 42 |
| K. Towns | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 41 |
| OG Anunoby | 15 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 31 |
| Mikal Bridges | 14 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 29 |
| Josh Hart | 12 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 35 |
Thunder vs. Knicks game-day updates and essential details
Wednesday's matchup between the Knicks and Thunder at Madison Square Garden is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New York Knicks
- Date: Wednesday, March 4, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Madison Square Garden
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 67% win probability, will likely beat the Knicks on Wednesday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Knicks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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