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Thunder vs. Warriors prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Friday's NBA game [1/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Golden State Warriors predictions for NBA Friday.
The Golden State Warriors will square off with the favored Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action at Chase Center on Friday, beginning at 10:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Warriors game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Warriors lineup will feature players like Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Brandin Podziemski, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Warriors prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA game between the Thunder and Warriors 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Thunder a 74% chance of defeating the Warriors. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 118-110.
According to our model, the Warriors (+8.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 229.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Thunder vs. Warriors odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -8.5 (-115) | +8.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -360 | +300 |
| Total | o229.5 (-105) | u229.5 (-112) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Warriors picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Warriors +8.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Warriors | +300 |
| Total | Over 229.5 | -105 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Warriors +8.5 at the spread.
Thunder vs. Warriors player props
NBA player props are a popular way to wager on Friday's Oklahoma City vs. Golden State game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Chase Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 30 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Stephen Curry is projected to have 25 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists for the Warriors.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 53 |
| Jalen Williams | 19 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 40 |
| Chet Holmgren | 18 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 37 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| Aaron Wiggins | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
Warriors prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Warriors:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | 25 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 44 |
| Jimmy Butler | 18 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 36 |
| B. Podziemski | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
| Moses Moody | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| D. Melton | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 22 |
Thunder vs. Warriors game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Warriors and Thunder at Chase Center is scheduled to commence at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Chase Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 74% win probability, will likely beat the Warriors on Friday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 53 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Warriors insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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