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Thunder vs. Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Warriors NBA game on January 2, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
131
94
Jan 3, 3AM Chase Center
Jan 3, 3AM Chase Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 34 | 30 | 31 | 36 | 131 |
Warriors | 23 | 22 | 20 | 29 | 94 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
100%
0%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 34 | 30 | 31 | 36 | 131 |
Warriors | 23 | 22 | 20 | 29 | 94 |
Q4 00:26 Warriors makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:44 Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:51 Buddy Hield misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:00 Aaron Wiggins misses three point stepback jump shot
Q4 1:23 Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:35 Quinten Post makes two point jump shot (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
Q4 1:44 Chris Youngblood makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:55 Buddy Hield makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:06 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:25 Warriors misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
Thunder turnover
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
131-94
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Buddy Hield misses three point jump shot
Quinten Post defensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses three point stepback jump shot
Warriors turnover
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
+2
Quinten Post makes two point jump shot (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)
131-92
+3
Chris Youngblood makes three point jump shot
131-94
+3
Buddy Hield makes three point jump shot
131-94
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
131-94
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+1
Aaron Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 2
124-87
Quinten Post shooting foul (Aaron Wiggins draws the foul)
+1
Aaron Wiggins makes regular free throw 1 of 2
131-94
Thunder 60 second timeout
Gui Santos turnover
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
131-94
Chris Youngblood offensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Quinten Post makes three point jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
121-87
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
131-94
Gui Santos turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
+1
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
116-82
Aaron Wiggins personal foul
+1
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
131-94
Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Gary Payton II misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
121-87
+3
Pat Spencer makes three point jump shot
116-82
+3
Chris Youngblood makes three point jump shot
131-94
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Buddy Hield defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Moses Moody personal foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
Warriors lineup change (Quinten Post, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Chris Youngblood, Branden Carlson)
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Quinten Post, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
131-94
+3
Chris Youngblood makes three point jump shot
113-76
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Pat Spencer misses three point jump shot
Al Horford defensive rebound
Chris Youngblood misses three point jump shot
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Pat Spencer offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Pat Spencer defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+3
Buddy Hield makes three point jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
131-94
Thunder turnover
Warriors turnover
+2
Branden Carlson makes two point jump shot
131-94
Warriors 60 second timeout
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Chris Youngblood, Branden Carlson)
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Pat Spencer, Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II, Al Horford)
Moses Moody turnover (lost ball) (Branden Carlson steals)
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
108-73
Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Pat Spencer, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Al Horford)
Moses Moody misses regular free throw 1 of 1
+2
Moses Moody makes two point driving layup (Pat Spencer assists)
131-94
Warriors violation
+2
Ajay Mitchell makes two point layup (Kenrich Williams assists)
106-71
+2
Moses Moody makes two point jump shot
104-71
Pat Spencer offensive rebound
Gui Santos misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
104-69
Branden Carlson personal foul
+1
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
104-69
Instant replay
Trayce Jackson-Davis misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Warriors offensive rebound
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Warriors personal foul
+1
Branden Carlson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
131-94
+1
Branden Carlson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
131-94
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
Branden Carlson offensive rebound
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
131-94
Thunder misses three point jump shot
+2
Moses Moody makes two point jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
131-94
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
131-94
Warriors personal foul
Moses Moody turnover (offensive foul)
Moses Moody defensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses two point layup
Warriors offensive rebound
Thunder personal foul
Brandin Podziemski misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Brandin Podziemski makes regular free throw 2 of 2
95-66
End of 3rd Quarter.
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Pat Spencer, Will Richard, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
Thunder lineup change (Kenrich Williams, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Branden Carlson)
Al Horford offensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
95-65
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot (Pat Spencer assists)
93-65
Ajay Mitchell turnover
Thunder defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Al Horford misses three point jump shot
Al Horford defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Buddy Hield misses three point jump shot
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
92-62
Buddy Hield shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
131-94
Warriors lineup change (Gui Santos, Pat Spencer, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Al Horford)
Buddy Hield turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Branden Carlson)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (Trayce Jackson-Davis steals)
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
131-94
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point jump shot
93-62
+3
Warriors makes three point jump shot
91-62
Warriors turnover
+3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point pullup jump shot (Chet Holmgren assists)
93-62
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder offensive rebound
Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot
131-94
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
131-94
+3
Aaron Wiggins makes three point jump shot
131-94
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)
Trayce Jackson-Davis turnover (offensive foul)
Instant replay (Challenge)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Warriors 60 second timeout
Chet Holmgren turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Al Horford)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
+2
Ajay Mitchell makes two point finger roll layup
131-94
Pat Spencer personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren blocks Trayce Jackson-Davis's two point jump shot
Warriors lineup change (Pat Spencer, Will Richard, Buddy Hield, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
Aaron Wiggins turnover
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Will Richard offensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+3
Thunder makes three point jump shot
131-94
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Will Richard misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
131-94
Warriors turnover
Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Thunder personal foul
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive rebound
+1
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
131-94
+1
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
131-94
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren)
Warriors 60 second timeout
Gary Payton II misses two point driving floating jump shot
Moses Moody personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Pat Spencer, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
95-65
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
131-94
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Will Richard misses two point turnaround jump shot
Will Richard offensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins blocks Will Richard's two point jump shot
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Warriors misses three point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
72-52
+2
Warriors makes two point jump shot
131-94
Thunder personal foul
Luguentz Dort personal foul (Gui Santos draws the foul)
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
131-94
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Will Richard misses two point floating jump shot
Will Richard defensive rebound
Thunder misses two point jump shot
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Quinten Post misses three point jump shot
Thunder turnover
Quinten Post offensive rebound
+2
Quinten Post makes two point jump shot
131-94
Quinten Post misses two point layup
Aaron Wiggins turnover (Brandin Podziemski steals)
Warriors personal foul
Quinten Post turnover (offensive foul)
Instant replay
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
93-62
Quinten Post personal foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
131-94
+2
Moses Moody makes two point jump shot (Quinten Post assists)
66-48
Gui Santos defensive rebound
Thunder misses three point jump shot
Brandin Podziemski turnover
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
131-94
Quinten Post personal foul
Thunder personal foul
Gui Santos misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Warriors offensive rebound
+1
Gui Santos makes regular free throw 2 of 2
131-94
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
End of 1st Half.
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Quinten Post, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard)
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren)
+3
Luguentz Dort makes three point jump shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)
64-45
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Gui Santos, Will Richard, Gary Payton II, Trayce Jackson-Davis)
Brandin Podziemski personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Aaron Wiggins, Alex Caruso)
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Brandin Podziemski misses three point jump shot
Jalen Williams turnover (offensive foul)
Jalen Williams offensive foul (Charge) (Brandin Podziemski draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, Branden Carlson)
+3
Moses Moody makes three point jump shot (Brandin Podziemski assists)
61-45
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot (Branden Carlson assists)
61-42
Branden Carlson offensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point jump shot
+2
Thunder makes two point jump shot
131-94
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Branden Carlson)
+1
Will Richard makes regular free throw 1 of 1
59-42
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shooting foul (Will Richard draws the foul)
Warriors lineup change (Moses Moody, Quinten Post, Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, Will Richard)
+2
Will Richard makes two point floating jump shot
59-41
Al Horford defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point jump shot
+2
Will Richard makes two point cutting layup (Brandin Podziemski assists)
59-39
+2
Cason Wallace makes two point driving layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
59-37
Branden Carlson defensive rebound
Alex Caruso shooting foul (Gui Santos draws the foul)
Gui Santos misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+1
Gui Santos makes regular free throw 1 of 2
57-37
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Warriors misses two point jump shot
Warriors turnover
Warriors turnover
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thunder vs. Warriors: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Thunder vs. Warriors
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Chase Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -13.5
- Total (Over/Under): 225.5
- Moneyline Odds: Thunder -700, Warriors +560
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Thunder: 84%
- Warriors: 16%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 119-107 Warriors.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 84%, while the Warriors have a win probability of 16%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Warriors in the NBA game at Chase Center on Saturday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Thunder vs. Warriors predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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