Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner prediction, odds, picks for 2026 Australian Open

Novak Djokovic will take on Jannik Sinner in the semifinals of the 2026 Australian Open on Friday.

The championship matchup pairs two 14–3 teams coming off sharply contrasting conference title games, with New England advancing through a low-scoring, snow-filled AFC Championship win over Denver and Seattle earning its place after a 31–27 NFC Championship thriller against the Rams.

The clash also spotlights two offensive focal points, with Drake Maye guiding New England through a composed, run-focused AFC title performance and Jaxon Smith-Njigba entering as Seattle’s primary playmaker following a 153-yard, one-touchdown outing in the NFC Championship.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Jannik Sinner as the most likely winner of the Djokovic vs. Sinner match.

This article offers a closer look at Friday's match, including best bets and picks.

Djokovic vs. Sinner prediction: Who will win and advance to the final?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Friday's Djokovic-Sinner men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives Sinner a 90% chance of defeating Djokovic in the 2026 Australian Open.

Additionally, Sinner has an 81% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Sinner (-7.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 32.5 games has a 57% chance of hitting**, according to our model.

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Djokovic vs. Sinner picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below: