North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction: Why Michigan State is favored to win men's March Madness First Round matchup [3/19/2026]

Men's college basketball action continues on Thursday at 4:05 PM ET as North Dakota State takes on the favored Michigan State in First Round action at KeyBank Center.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced college basketball model predicts Michigan State as the most likely winner of the North Dakota State vs. Michigan State game.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and picks.

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction: Who will win and advance to the Second Round?

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's NCAAM Tournament game between North Dakota State and Michigan State 10,000 times as part of our men's college basketball predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Michigan State a 95% chance of defeating North Dakota State. Our predicted final score has Michigan State winning 81-63.

According to our model, Michigan State (-16.5) has a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 144.5 points has a 53% chance of going over.

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State odds

We have researched the best men's college basketball odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	North Dakota State	Michigan State
Spread	+16.5 (-110)	-16.5 (-102)
Moneyline	+1100	-1650
Total	o144.5 (-105)	u144.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Michigan State -16.5	-102
Moneyline	Michigan State	-1650
Total	Over 144.5	-105

According to our men's college basketball best bets, the top play to make on this game is Michigan State -16.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

North Dakota State vs. Michigan State game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's men's college basketball action between Michigan State and North Dakota State at KeyBank Center is scheduled to begin at 4:05 PM ET.

• Who: North Dakota State vs. Michigan State
• Date: Thursday, March 19, 2026
• Time: 4:05 PM ET/1:05PM PT
• Venue: KeyBank Center
• March Madness stage: First Round

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Conclusion

We predict Michigan State, with a 95% win probability, will likely beat North Dakota State this men's March Madness First Round matchup.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate North Dakota State vs. Michigan State insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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