NFL Week 9 Picks, Bets and Storylines: Puka Nacua returns, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes battle for MVP

We've reach the midpoint of the NFL season with Week 9, and like the previous eight, there are countless NFL Picks, Best Bets, and major NFL betting storylines to dig into, from the return of Puka Nacua to the AFC battle of titans between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in Chiefs-Bills on Halloween weekend.

Betting on the NFL becomes less spooky when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub, Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions.

To help set you up for each upcoming week of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests, all while utilizing the valuable Dimers Pro data available across Dimers.com.

This week, we have two Dimers model best bets and an Anytime Touchdown ladder on a player to score 1, 2 and 3 touchdowns on Sunday.

Let's stay hot and dive into Week 9!

NFL Week 9 Best Bets, Storylines, and Survivor Picks

Puka Nacua returns from multi-week absence

Puka Nacua headlines the week as the top wideout, projected for 97.2 yards on 7.8 receptions and 22.8 PPR points, with a 44.6% touchdown probability.

He faces a Saints defense that’s yet to allow a 100-yard receiver, but his line of 91.5 yards at even money odds looks inviting given his role, usual target share and Dimers model projection.

His return doesn't look to hurt Davante Adams' chances of scoring as he sits with a 50.2% TD probability and 64.4 receiving yards.

With the Saints starting Tyler Shough for the first time, the spread (-13.5) suggests a potential blowout scenario where Los Angeles’ stars shine bright as they feed Nacua in his return.

🏈 Rams vs. Saints full game prediction

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes face off in MVP battle

Mahomes (+150 for NFL MVP) and Allen (+450) headline a matchup that could have AFC seeding implications, shake up the MVP race and provide us with last-minute fireworks - and it isn't even on primetime.

The Bills hold a slim 52% probability to cover +2 at home, with both offenses in top form after blowout wins, and a 54% probability to go under the 52.5-point total.

With Isiah Pacheco sidelined, rookie Brashard Smith (projected 20 rushing, 20 receiving yards, 24% TD chance) could see expanded usage against Buffalo’s weak run defense.

Looking for a plus-money play? JuJu Smith-Schuster offers sneaky value at plus money for 15+ yards and is projected 19.3 by the Dimers model. Though minimally involved, he has cleared this in 7/8 games this season.

Expect both elite QBs to deliver in this rivalry—Allen (38% TD probability) and Mahomes (20%) are both worth consideration for anytime scores at +850 combined odds. Allen has 5 rushing TDs vs. the Chiefs since 2021, while Mahomes has 3 vs. the Bills in that span.

🏈 Best Bets, props and picks for Chiefs vs. Bills

Fade the Vikings as the "Trick of the Weekend"

With Carson Wentz out for the season, rookie JJ McCarthy is expected to start for Minnesota, drastically capping their offensive upside

In his two previous starts, Justin Jefferson managed just three catches for 81 yards while no other receiver topped 44.

Although Jordan Addison wasn't active in those games, the outlook remains bleak with projections of 76 yards for Jefferson and 50 for Addison, and no Viking exceeding a 35% touchdown probability.

This offense could be in for another long afternoon and bettors looking at overs will find more value in the prop unders in Dimers' NFL props.

🏈 Cowboys-Broncos Player Prop Projections

NFL Best Bets for Week 9

Our top probability and edge are discussed weekly on the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, and the game lines featured in this article are on 8-6 so far this season.

Below, you will find the current top probability and best edge from our Best NFL Bets, along with our top TD prop of the weekend, with some extra value on that player to score as well.

Bet: Cowboys -2.5 vs. Cardinals (-115 on DraftKings)

Dallas entered this matchup with a 56.5% probability and 2.3% edge early in the week, climbing to 58.2% and 4.7% for a better value.

The Cowboys have been most dominant against weaker opponents, and the Cardinals, winless since Week 2, may not have enough to keep up even with Kyler Murray expected back, as their defense has allowed 27+ points in their past two games.

Murray is projected for 241 passing yards (a season high) and 36 rushing yards, though Arizona’s backfield remains in flux and their defense has faltered against top-tier offenses.

Expect big-play potential through CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens (five 100 yard games between the two) for the Cowboys, who should cause problems for Arizona.

One angle for bettors to consider is on a secondary receiver to have a big game vs. the Dallas defense - Wan'Dale Robinson, Luther Burden and Troy Franklin have all had huge games against a vulnerable secondary.

Michael Wilson currently projects with the most upside at 33 receiving yards and a 23% TD probability.

🏈 Cowboys vs. Cardinals Full Game Predictions

Bet: Commanders +3 vs. Seahawks (-110 on BetMGM)

The Commanders opened as one of the week’s top value plays with a 58.9% probability and a 5.8% edge with our early Week 9 predictions.

Washington’s recent struggles with Marcus Mariota under center have been a big part of their skid, but Jayden Daniels’ expected return to full practice has kept this number steady despite Terry McLaurin’s absence due to his recurring quad injury.

Daniels’ mobility could find little room to run against Seattle’s elite rush defense, which allows just 75.7 yards per game and only two rushing scores all season, and lines up with a Seahawks team that sees more pass attempts than any other team in the league.

With Washington likely needing to throw to keep pace, receiving props, like on Zach Ertz (projected 38 yards, +125 for 40+), may offer stronger value for those who prefer prop betting.

If you’re fading the Commanders, the Dimers model flags touchdown value for Seattle’s JSN, Cooper Kupp, and AJ Barner in what projects as a pass-heavy game.

🏈 Seahawks-Commanders full game prediction

TD Ladder Play: Josh Jacobs (Packers) vs. Panthers

Josh Jacobs stands alone as the week’s premier touchdown ladder candidate, with a 62.2% chance to score once, 25.4% for two, and 7.5% for three touchdowns, all marked as high-value edges.

Jacobs has found the end zone nine times this year, including four straight games and three multi-score outings.

Carolina’s run defense has been gashed repeatedly, most recently surrendering 216 yards and two scores to James Cook with additional multi-rushing TD games.

Even with Jacobs limited by a calf injury in practice, the value here remains strong across all tiers of the ladder.

🏈 Full game preview for Packers vs. Panthers

Week 9 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple of looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

We got caught by the late start of Kirk Cousins in place of Michael Penix Jr, killing our pick of the Falcons vs. the Dolphins last week.

We'll continue to deliver our top choice for those who are still competing in their Survivor pools.

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most Likely NFL Winners Straight Up

1️⃣ Rams (91%) vs. Saints

2️⃣ Packers (89%) vs. Panthers

3️⃣ Chargers (81%) @ Titans

4️⃣ Lions (77%) vs. Vikings

5️⃣ Patriots (70%) vs. Falcons

Editor's pick: Lots of unused and strong options here, Chargers, Packers, and Patriots. Let's make the Packers an official play in a strong pick by the model vs. a banged-up Bryce Young.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 Lions ✅ WK6 Colts ✅ | WK7 Chiefs ✅ | WK8 Falcons ✖️

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Cowboys -2.5 (58%) vs. Cardinals

2️⃣ Commanders +3 (58%) vs. Seahawks

3️⃣ Bengals +2.5 (58%) vs. Bears

4️⃣ Steelers +3.5 (57%) vs. Colts

5️⃣ Panthers +13.5 (54%) @ Packers

Editor's pick: We'll go back tot he Cowboys on a bet with value from the Dimers model as featured above, the only team favored to cover the spread in our Top 5.

Previous picks: WK1 Chargers +3.5 ✅ | WK2 Bucs +2.5 ✅ | WK3 Rams +4 ✖️ | WK4 Colts +3.5 ✖️ | WK5 Raiders +7 ✖️| WK6 Falcons +5 ✅ | WK7 Panthers -1.5 ✅ | Cowboys +3.5 ✖️

Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 9 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 9 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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