NFL Week 9 First Touchdowns: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday

Betting on first touchdown scorers in Week 9 NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these Week 9 touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 9 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up five first TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 9 Sunday NFL slate.

NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 9 (Sunday, November 2, 2025)

There's a mix of value, strong probabilities and favorable positional matchups for our first touchdown picks in Week 9, with all players showing odds of +340 to +500. Several players have also seen their First TD odds improve since we debuted these picks on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

1. Christian McCaffrey (49ers)

Matchup details:

• Game: 49ers vs. Giants
• Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Levi’s Stadium

Christian McCaffrey enters Week 9 as the top overall projected touchdown scorer across the NFL, with a significant 17.6% probability to score the first touchdown, per Dimers’ model. McCaffrey remains the engine of the 49ers’ offense, and after a light workload last week due to negative game script, he’s set up for a bounce-back performance against a Giants defense ranked 27th in red-zone efficiency.

New York’s defense has allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and 149 yards per game on the ground, leaving little doubt that McCaffrey will have multiple chances to strike early.

With the next-highest probability in this matchup belonging to Tyrone Tracy at just 9%, McCaffrey is in a tier of his own for Week 9.

Christian McCaffrey First TD odds: +450

2. Josh Jacobs (Packers)

Matchup details:

• Game: Packers vs. Panthers
• Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Lambeau Field

Josh Jacobs ranks second among all players this week with a 16.2% first touchdown probability, and he’s in an elite spot to find the end zone early against Carolina.

The Panthers’ run defense was just shredded by James Cook, and they’ve allowed a favorable red-zone success rate at 58.3%.

Meanwhile, the Packers’ offense converts at an impressive 70.0% rate in the red zone, giving Jacobs every opportunity to punch one in close.

With a top-5 anytime touchdown probability over 60%, Jacobs headlines Green Bay’s offensive game plan in a matchup where the ground game should dominate.

Josh Jacobs First TD odds: +600

3. Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)

Matchup details:

• Game: Lions vs. Vikings
• Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Ford Field

Jahmyr Gibbs checks in with a 14.8% probability to score the first touchdown as Detroit hosts Minnesota in a game the Lions are expected to control throughout.

Gibbs has opened scoring for the Lions three times this season and remains one of the most dynamic red-zone weapons in football.

Detroit ranks among the most efficient teams in the red zone, while the Vikings’ defense allows scores on just over 50% of opponent red-zone trips.

Gibbs also holds a comfortable 5% scoring advantage over teammates David Montgomery and Amon-Ra St. Brown in first TD probability, making him the clear favorite to strike first for Detroit.

Jahmyr Gibbs First TD odds: +700

4. Kimani Vidal (Chargers)

Matchup details:

• Game: Chargers vs. Titans
• Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
• Time: 4:05 PM ET
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

Chargers RB Kimani Vidal has exploded since taking over lead duties, logging two games with 115+ rushing yards and a touchdown.

With a 13.6% first touchdown probability, Vidal enters Week 9 as a top-four projected scorer at the position against a vulnerable Titans front.

Tennessee has been a sieve versus the run, allowing four more rushing touchdowns than any other team in the NFL.

Their red-zone defense allows scores on 60% of drives, making Vidal a strong candidate to cash early before the Chargers pivot to their passing game.

Kimani Vidal First TD odds: +850

5. Puka Nacua (Rams)

Matchup details:

• Game: Rams vs. Saints
• Date: Sunday, November 2, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: SoFi Stadium

Back from injury, Puka Nacua immediately steps into a favorable matchup against a Saints defense that’s struggled to contain opposing wideouts, allowing 14 passing touchdowns, a bottom-five mark in the league.

With a 12.5% first touchdown probability, Nacua’s target magnetism should be on full display, and he’s projected nearly even with Kyren Williams and Davante Adams for first TD chances.

Expect the Rams to script early targets his way as they look to reestablish their offensive rhythm through their star.

Puka Nacua First TD odds: +900

Dimers' NFL Week 9 First Touchdown picks.

First Touchdown Scorers: Week 9 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a first touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score the first TD in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, an NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 9. The total potential payout for a small stake on this first touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.