NFL Week 16 Touchdown Picks: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday

Betting on touchdown scorers in Week 16 NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting, especially when taking the top TD scorers to find the end zone not once, but twice.

When at least three multi-touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these Week 16 touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 16 of the NFL season continues following the three Thursday and Saturday games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzed matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring 2+ touchdowns on Sunday.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub primarily focuses on home teams and running backs who could find themselves in run-heavy game scripts early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous touchdown Round Robin, this time with a twist, made up of five multiple TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 16 Sunday NFL slate.

NFL Touchdown Scorers: Week 16 (Sunday, December 21, 2025)

Three positions make up this multi-touchdown round robin parlay - three WRs, one TE and one RB. As opposed to first touchdown bets that come with even shorter odds on these stars, we're getting closer to fair odds and even a little bit of value on some of these players, with odds ranging from +400 to +1100.

We have analyzed these five players, their respective probability of scoring multiple touchdowns, the current odds, and the reasons why our model has tagged them as high probability touchdown bets.

1. Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Bengals vs. Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase enters as the most likely WR to score in all of Week 16 and draws a strong 15.7% probability to score twice vs. the Dolphins.

Miami’s defense just showed on Monday night that it can be picked apart, allowing efficient passing and multiple scores. Now they face the most targeted receiver in the NFL, a nightmare matchup for a secondary that has struggled, especially in the red zone. The Dolphins have allowed 22 passing touchdowns this season and rank 26th over the past five weeks in TDs conceded to wide receivers, giving Chase a strong path to the end zone.

While Chase hasn’t scored since Joe Burrow returned, his usage hasn't never dipped, and that’s what matters most for touchdown equity. Volume plus a vulnerable red-zone defense makes this a classic get-right spot for one of the NFL's most prolific receivers.

Ja'Marr Chase 2+ TD odds: +400

2. Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Steelers vs. Lions
• Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Ford Field

Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown enters this game with a 16.0% probability to score two touchdowns, matching Ja'Marr Chase as the top wide receivers of the week.

Pittsburgh’s pass defense has been leaky overall, surrendering 23 passing touchdowns this season. That’s a shaky setup against one of the league’s most reliable scoring threats, who has already posted three multi-touchdown games this year and is coming off another dominant performance last week.

He carries the highest multi-touchdown probability in this game among Lions pass-catchers, and trailing only Jahmyr Gibbs’ massive 30% projection at much steeper odds.

Amon-Ra St. Brown 2+ TD odds: +500

3. Trye McBride (Cardinals)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Falcons vs. Cardinals
• Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
• Time: 4:05 PM ET
• Venue: State Farm Stadium

Atlanta has been solid against tight ends on paper, but Cardinals TE Trey McBride is not a typical matchup. He leads all tight ends in receiving yards, and his 10 touchdowns rank tied for third at the position, entering this game with an 11.5% probability to score 2+, the highest for a tight end.

He’s already shown slate-breaking upside with two multi-TD games this year including last week against a strong defense.

The Falcons have allowed opponents to convert 58% of their red-zone opportunities this season, a dangerous number against a player who leads his position in red zone targets with 27.

McBride’s consistent role, strong probability and matchup make him another top choice for 2+ touchdowns.

Trey McBride 2+ TD odds: +750

4. TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Patriots vs. Ravens
• Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
• Time: 8:20 PM ET
• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium

The current Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite has fully taken over the Patriots' backfield, with RB TreVeyon Henderson producing three multi-touchdown games since Week 10 and adding another just last week.

Baltimore’s run defense has improved, but Henderson’s explosiveness and red-zone usage separate him from the rest of New England’s offense which should move to a more run-heavy approach against the Ravens' lockdown passing game lately.

Our model projects Henderson as the Patriots’ most likely scorer by a wide margin, over 13% higher than the next player, and his 11.0% probability for 2+ touchdowns is more than double that of the next-most likely Patriots player. 

TreVeyon Henderson 2+ TD odds: +750

5. Ladd McConkey (Chargers)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Chargers vs. Cowboys
• Date: Sunday, December 21, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: AT&T Stadium

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey is our longest odds play, and one that checks in at fair value with his probability of 8.2%.

Dallas owns one of the league’s worst passing defenses and continues to allow touchdowns through the air at an alarming rate. While RB Omarion Hampton carries a higher probability to score twice for Los Angeles, it's only by 2%, comes with a big odds gap, and McConkey gets the better positional matchup.

McConkey is due for some positive regression after a couple of quiet weeks, especially against a defense allowing the most passing touchdowns in the NFL at 2.2 per game this year.

At these odds with a great matchup, McConkey offers sneaky upside with his longshot odds.

Ladd McConkey 2+ TD odds: +1100

NFL Touchdown Scorers: Week 16 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a 2+ touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score 2 or more TD in their respective games.

Alternatively, you can play a five-leg Anytime TD parlay at +3291 odds with each player to record just one touchdown at any point in the game.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, an NFL 2+ touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 16. The total potential payout for a small stake on this touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.