...
...
Read Article
- More Betting
NFL Week 14 First Touchdowns: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
The Week 14 analysis of our NFL first touchdown scorer data has unearthed some high probability first touchdown scorers in favorable matchups on NFL Sunday, December 7, 2025.
Betting on first touchdown scorers in Week 14 NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these Week 14 touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.
As Week 14 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.
This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.
As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up five first TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 14 Sunday NFL slate.
NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 14 (Sunday, December 7, 2025)
It's all RBs in this one, top-loaded with strong probabilities and rounded out by a strong value play for our first touchdown picks in Week 14, with players showing odds from +400 to +950.
We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the reasons why our model has tagged them as high probability first touchdown bets.
1. Jonathan Taylor (Colts)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Colts vs. Jaguars
- Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: EverBank Stadium
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has cooled off a bit since erupting for 244 yards and three touchdowns in Berlin, failing to find the end zone while the Colts dropped two straight.
Expect Indy to course-correct here by leaning heavily on their RB1 early and often in a crucial game with AFC South implications, especially with Jonathan Taylor grading out as our top touchdown probability of the entire week at 18%.
The matchup isn’t the easiest as Jacksonville’s run defense has been strong, but they do allow opponents to convert at a 60.0% rate in the red zone, 23rd in the league, and Taylor still owns a 67% probability to score an anytime touchdown, the highest of the entire week. With a hobbled Daniel Jones, JT could see one of his biggest workloads of the season.
At just about fair odds of +300 and Taylor's longest First TD odds in weeks, our model says to buy the dip.
Jonathan Taylor First TD odds: +300
2. Josh Jacobs (Packers)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Bears vs. Packers
- Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
- Time: 4:25 PM ET
- Venue: Lambeau Field
Packers RB Josh Jacobs comes in with the second-highest first TD probability of the week at 16%, and despite his one-game injury absence, he looked fully functional in his return.
Before the injury, Jacobs had scored in all but one game this season, and even though he didn't find the end zone in his first game back, the workload and red-zone involvement remain intact with Emmanuel Wilson completely phased out with Jacobs back.
The Bears are playing well, but still have a bottom-five rushing defense in the NFL and Green Bay has opened the scoring eight times this season, a tough matchup for a Bears team allowing red zone TDs at a 61.0% rate.
As a touchdown favorite in this matchup and Jacobs back in a lead role, the Packers' workhorse should have a good chance to score the first TD once again.
Josh Jacobs First TD odds: 380
3. Derrick Henry (Ravens)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Steelers vs. Ravens
- Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Like the first two picks, Ravens RB Derrick Henry sits firmly inside the Top 5 overall TD probabilities this week, riding a strong stretch with four touchdowns in his last three games and getting a 15.2% probability to score first vs. the Steelers.
With Lamar Jackson and the passing game struggling, Baltimore should look to establish the run early and let Henry set the tone in a pivotal divisional matchup.
Pittsburgh’s offense has been anemic, and their inability to sustain drives should give the Ravens great field position throughout.
Baltimore also gets extra rest after playing on Thanksgiving and the defense has been quietly excellent for over a month. All signs point to another high-leverage Henry spot.
Derrick Henry First TD odds: +390
4. RJ Harvey (Broncos)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Broncos vs. Raiders
- Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
- Time: 4:05 PM ET
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Sitting just outside the Top 5 for NFL Sunday with a 14.1% First TD probability, Broncos RB RJ Harvey is a perfect fit for the First TD Round Robin.
He’s coming off a two-score game and now has back-to-back outings with double-digit carries, clearly holding the lead RB role while Jaleel McLaughlin has been capped at six carries per game after JL Dobbins' injury.
Harvey’s efficiency, receiving work, and strong hold on red-zone touches put him in a prime position with the Raiders unlikely to open the scoring against Denver’s elite defense.
Backing the Broncos’ leading scorer and top model probability in this one-sided matchup makes perfect sense for our round robin.
RJ Harvey First TD odds: +400
5. Chris Rodriguez Jr. (Commanders)
Matchup details:
- Teams: Commanders vs. Vikings
- Date: Sunday, December 7, 2025
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Commanders RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. might be the Dimers model's favorite TD prop of the week.
As highlighted on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, Rodriguez gets an edge to score 1, 2+ and 3+ touchdowns this Sunday vs. the Vikings, with a 10.0% pro to score first.
Minnesota’s offense has completely cratered, scoring six total points over their last two games and just four touchdowns during a four-game skid, setting this up as a favorable spot for Washington, who have moved to 1.5-point favorites with Jayden Daniels back under center.
Rodriguez has emerged as the lead back with double-digit carries in three of his last four games, four touchdowns since Week 7 (three in the last four), and the team leader in red-zone opportunities.
Against one of the worst recent red-zone defenses to RBs and with Minnesota allowing five rushing TDs during their losing streak, he’s a value-loaded play with fair odds at +900.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. First TD odds: +950
Dimers' Week 14 First Touchdown picks.
First Touchdown Scorers: Week 14 Round Robin Parlay
For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a first touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score the first TD in their respective games.
Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, an NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 12. The total potential payout for a small stake on this first touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
Advertiser disclosure