NFL Week 13 First Touchdowns: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday

Betting on first touchdown scorers in Week 13 NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these Week 13 touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 13 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up five first TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 13 Sunday NFL slate.

NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 13 (Sunday, November 30, 2025)

There's a mix of RBs and WRs as well as strong probabilities and favorable positional matchups for our first touchdown picks in Week 13, with all players showing odds from +400 to +800.

We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

1. De'Von Achane (Dolphins)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Saints vs. Dolphins
• Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium

De’Von Achane enters the slate with a top-four first touchdown probability at 14.4%, backed by both matchup and usage. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks bottom-10 in scoring and allows opponents to convert red-zone trips into touchdowns at a 60% clip. Achane has already scored in seven games this season as a true dual-threat weapon and is coming off his two highest-usage performances of the year with 28 and 26 combined touches.

New Orleans has scored the first touchdown just once all year, further boosting Achane’s likelihood of striking first in a game Miami is expected to control early. With his explosive efficiency and growing workload, he profiles as one of the best first-TD bets on the board.

De'Von Achane First TD odds: +400

2. Kyren Williams (Rams)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Rams vs. Panthers
• Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Bank of America Stadium

Kyren Williams owns a strong 13.0% first TD probability, the third-highest among running backs on the slate. He has scored five times in his last six games, nine total on the year, trailing only Davante Adams for the team lead. Williams’ red-zone role is elite, with 13 carries inside the 20 over the last four weeks (5th-most in the NFL), converting four of them into touchdowns.

He now gets a great matchup with the Panthers, who have surrendered 14 rushing TDs this season, tied for third-most, including seven since Week 8, the worst mark in the league over that stretch. With the Rams’ defense likely to limit Carolina’s scoring chances, Williams should be positioned for early opportunities near the goal line.

Kyren Williams First TD odds: +550

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Vikings vs. Seahawks
• Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
• Time: 4:05 PM ET
• Venue: Lumen Field

Jaxon Smith-Njigba carries a 12.0% first-TD probability, second-highest among all wideouts on Sunday behind Davante Adams. He’s been on a scoring tear with six touchdowns in his last seven games and has earned double-digit targets in four of his past six, including back-to-back games. He also scored the first TD last week and continues to operate as Seattle’s top projected WR for the slate.

The matchup with Minnesota isn’t the easiest on paper, but the Vikings’ offense may struggle to score first against Seattle’s elite defense. That sets the stage for multiple early Seahawks possessions, and with JSN’s volume surging, he remains a prime candidate to open the scoring again.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba First TD odds: +475

4. Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Jaguars vs. Titans
• Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Nissan Stadium

Travis Etienne Jr. sits just outside the top 10 in first-TD probability at 11.6%, but his recent form makes him a strong contender. He has four touchdowns in his last three games and has logged 18+ touches in four straight after a brief mid-season lull. No player has more red-zone touches over the past month than Etienne’s 25, and all four of his recent TDs have come inside the 20.

A matchup with Tennessee only elevates his outlook as the Titans have allowed 16 rushing TDs, the second-most in the NFL, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 58.5% of their red-zone trips. With Jacksonville relying heavily on Etienne near the goal line, he’s well-positioned to strike early in this divisional matchup.

Travis Etienne Jr. First TD odds: +500

5. Jaylen Warren (Steelers)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Bills vs. Steelers
• Date: Sunday, November 30, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium

Jaylen Warren gets one of the best matchups of the week against a Bills run defense ranked 30th and tied for the most rushing scores allowed (17). Buffalo has given up six rushing TDs to running backs in the last four weeks alone. Warren holds a 9.1% first-TD probability, pretty close to his implied probability of 11.1% at +800 odds, and ranks as the second-most likely player to score first in this game.

He’s also finding his stride at the right time, with three touchdowns in his last four games and a season-high 18 carries last week in a similarly favorable matchup vs. Chicago. With his role locked in and the matchup firmly in his favor, Warren is firmly in the first-TD conversation.

Jaylen Warren First TD odds: +800

Dimers' First TD Picks and Parlay for Week 13.

First Touchdown Scorers: Week 13 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a first touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score the first TD in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, an NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 12. The total potential payout for a small stake on this first touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.