NFL Week 12 First Touchdowns: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday

Betting on first touchdown scorers in Week 12 NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these Week 12 touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 12 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up five first TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 12 Sunday NFL slate.

NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 12 (Sunday, November 23, 2025)

There's a mix of RBs and WRs as well as strong probabilities and favorable positional matchups for our first touchdown picks in Week 12, with all players showing odds from +340 to +800. Several players have also seen their First TD odds improve slightly since we debuted these picks on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

1. Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Giants vs. Lions
• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Ford Field

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs enters Week 12 with the second-highest first TD probability overall at 18.3% and the top mark on Sunday behind only Christian McCaffrey playing on Monday night.

He draws a soft matchup against a Giants defense that routinely gives up early scores, allows almost 150 rushing yards per game and has the 27th-ranked red zone defense vs. running backs.

The Lions are projected to control this game throughout, which bodes well for Gibbs, as he has scored in every Detroit win this season, making him a critical part of their success, and a prime candidate to strike first if the Lions get rolling.

Jahmyr Gibbs First TD odds: +340

2. Derrick Henry (Ravens)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Jets vs. Ravens
• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: M&T Bank Stadium

Ravens RB Derrick Henry gets our third-highest probability this week at 17.5%, after finally finding the end zone in Week 11 for the first time since Week 8.

He now faces a Jets defense that just allowed three touchdowns to TreVeyon Henderson in Week 11 and continues to struggle in the red zone, giving up scores on 58.3% of opponent trips, even worse vs. RBs, ranked 29th in the NFL.

Henry remains a high-volume workhorse with 18+ touches in five straight games and will be opposite a weak Jets offense turning to Tyrod Taylor, ideal conditions for an early touchdown.

Derrick Henry First TD odds: +320

3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Seahawks vs. Titans
• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Nissan Stadium

Seahawks WR Jaxon-Smith Njigba gets a favorable setup against a one-win Titans team that rarely scores first, doing twice in their past five games, with one coming on a pick-six off Justin Herbert.

Seattle should control this game, with their elite defense snuffing out the Titans' drives, giving the league’s No. 1 wideout this season a strong path to strike early.

The Titans are more vulnerable on the ground, making Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet intriguing plays as well, but the backfield split can be tough to navigate, evidenced by their near-identical First TD probabilities while the passing game funnels directly through JSN.

He ranks as the second-highest WR in Week 12 first TD probability at 11.3%, making him a standout option in this round robin.

Jaxson Smith-Njigba First TD odds: +500

4. Trey McBride (Cardinals)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Jaguars vs. Cardinals
• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
• Time: 4:05 PM ET
• Venue: State Farm Stadium

Cardinals TE Trey McBride leads all players at the position in first touchdown probability this week at 10.4%, and it’s easy to see why: he’s scored in five straight games with six total touchdowns over that span.

Working further in his favor is the matchup; the Jaguars have been incredibly soft at defending tight ends. Their 0.7 TDs and 9 targets allowed per game are the second-worst marks in the NFL.

With Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined, McBride and Michael Wilson are the clear focal points of Arizona’s passing attack and he’s one of the rare TEs who can genuinely anchor a first-TD parlay.

Trey McBride First TD odds: +600

5. Alvin Kamara (Saints)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Falcons vs. Saints
• Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
• Time: 4:25 PM ET
• Venue: Caesars Superdome

Saints RB Alvin Kamara has just one touchdown this season, but Week 12 sets up surprisingly well for him, as long as he plays.

The Saints draw a Falcons team that will start Kirk Cousins at QB- they have scored one touchdown in the last 16 drives led by Cousins.

While Bijan Robinson is our highest probability in this game, he continues to lose red-zone work to Tyler Allgeier, who has outscored him this season, creating another murky backfield.

Meanwhile Kamara is coming off his best game since Week 2 and despite a down year, still dominates touches in the Saints’ backfield, drawing an 8.7% First TD probability this week

He carries a questionable tag, which he has mostly all year, but the team is coming off a bye and he practiced in a limited capacity all week, so he should be in line to start.

Alvin Kamara First TD odds: +800

Dimers' First TD picks in NFL Week 12.First Touchdown Scorers: Week 12 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a first touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score the first TD in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, an NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 12. The total potential payout for a small stake on this first touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.