NFL Week 11 First Touchdowns: Expert Analysis and TD Parlay on Sunday

Betting on first touchdown scorers in Week 11 NFL games is one of the most exciting and potentially lucrative propositions in sports betting. When multiple first touchdown bets are combined into a touchdown parlay or Round Robin, these Week 11 touchdown predictions can help turn a modest wager into a significant payout.

As Week 11 of the NFL season rolls into a massive Sunday slate of games, our proprietary betting model has crunched the numbers, analyzing matchups, red-zone efficiency, defensive vulnerabilities, and historical performance to identify the players with the highest probability of scoring the first touchdown.

This week's analysis of our NFL player projections hub reveals a strong lean toward powerful running backs with high-volume roles, as several key matchups point to a run-heavy approach early on.

As we do every week, we've compiled our famous first touchdown Round Robin, made up five first TD NFL prop bets backed by the Dimers model probabilities, giving you a clear, data-driven edge for the Week 11 Sunday NFL slate.

NFL First Touchdown Scorers: Week 11 (Sunday, November 16, 2025)

There's a mix of RBs and WRs as well as strong probabilities and favorable positional matchups for our first touchdown picks in Week 11, with all players showing odds from +300 to +800. Several players have also seen their First TD odds improve since we debuted these picks on the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast.

We have analyzed these guys, their respective probability of scoring the first touchdown, the current odds, and the key reasons why our model has tagged them as high-value first touchdown bets.

1. Josh Jacobs (Packers)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Packers vs. Giants
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: MetLife Stadium

Packers RB Josh Jacobs enters Week 11 as our top overall first-TD probability at 19%, facing a Giants defense that continues to hemorrhage rushing production.

New York allows the second-most rushing yards in the league and ranks just 24th in red-zone defense against running backs, giving Jacobs a premium matchup with little downside.

Jacobs' 11 rushing touchdowns are second-most in the NFL and ahs scored the Packers' first team touchdown in three of their past five games.

Josh Jacobs First TD odds: +300

2. Christian McCaffrey (49ers)

Matchup details:

• Teams: 49ers vs. Cardinals
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 4:05 PM ET
• Venue: State Farm Stadium

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey lands second on the board this week at 18% to score first and could benefit greatly if Brock Purdy returns as expected, restoring stability to the 49ers’ offense.

Purdy’s tendency to lean on his safety nets boosts McCaffrey’s early-score outlook. With the Cardinals missing Marvin Harrison Jr. as a key weapon. San Francisco should have an early opportunity to strike with McCaffrey's 9th touchdown of the year.

CMC ahs scored the Niners' first TD of the game four times this season.

Christian McCaffrey First TD odds: +340

3. Woody Marks (Texans)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Texans vs. Titans
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Nissan Stadium

The Texans backfield is shifting, and the model is firmly behind Texans RB Woody Marks as Houston’s top option this week with a 12% probability to score first.

Tennessee presents a dream matchup, allowing the most rushing touchdowns in football, and Marks ranks in the Top 15 overall in first-TD probability.

With Davis Mills starting once again, Houston should lean heavily on the ground game, and their defense is strong enough to keep the Titans off the board early, creating an ideal first-score script for Marks.

Woody Marks First TD odds: +600

4. Drake London (Falcons)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Panthers vs. Falcons
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Falcons WR Drake London has been electric with six touchdowns in his past five games and over 100 yards in four of them.

He owns the highest first-TD probability of any wideout this week at 12% and sits inside the top 15 overall.

He's scored first for the Falcons twice in his little hot streak and gets a Panthers defense ranked right in the middle of the NFL in the passing game.

Drake London First TD odds: +550

5. DK Metcalf (Steelers)

Matchup details:

• Teams: Bengals vs. Steelers
• Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
• Time: 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Acrisure Stadium

Steelers WR DK Metcalf sits a bit further down the board, but the matchup and value are appealing against a Bengals defense he can exploit - they've allowed more passing TDs (23) than any other team in the NFL).

He hasn’t scored in two straight games which marks his longest drought of the season, making him a strong positive-regression candidate with a 9% probability to score first.

The Dimers model suggests his fair price would be around +1000, yet he’s available as short as +650, presenting a potential misprice.

DK Metcalf First TD odds: +800

Dimers' First TD Picks in Week 11 of the NFL.

First Touchdown Scorers: Week 11 Round Robin Parlay

For bettors looking to leverage this data, a first touchdown Round Robin offers a balanced approach to maximizing potential returns, with less risk than a traditional NFL parlay. By combining these five players into a first touchdown Round Robin bet, you are pairing multiple players together in different combinations, allowing for a payout even if only two of the five players score the first TD in their respective games.

Given the strong probabilities and appealing odds, an NFL first touchdown Round Robin of 2, 3, 4, and 5-leg parlay combinations using this curated list is a high-entertainment strategy for Week 11. The total potential payout for a small stake on this first touchdown scorer group is significant, making it a cornerstone of our weekly betting strategy.