NFL Week 11 straight up picks: Expert predictions for every game [2025]

At Dimers.com, we provide NFL picks straight up for Week 11 and every week, as part of our in-depth NFL picks and NFL predictions coverage.

With Week 11 of the NFL season here, we've used our state-of-the-art predictive analytics model to deliver a list of NFL straight up picks for all 15 games this week.

Secure an advantage in your NFL pick 'em contests by following our data-driven NFL Week 11 picks straight up, powered by thousands of game simulations.

Week 11 of the NFL season features 15 games, beginning with the New York Jets facing the New England Patriots on Thursday night and wrapping up with the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday.

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Full list of NFL Week 11 picks straight up

• Patriots (86% win probability)
• Dolphins (58%)
• Chargers (59%)
• Bills (69%)
• Vikings (59%)
• Packers (77%)
• Texans (79%)
• Falcons (61%)
• Steelers (67%)
• 49ers (58%)
• Rams (59%)
• Chiefs (63%)
• Ravens (81%)
• Eagles (57%)
• Cowboys (62%)

NFL picks this week straight up: Week 11, 2025

Here are our Week 11 NFL picks, highlighting how likely each team is to win their game this week.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

The Jets kick off Week 11 against the Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Thursday. According to our NFL model, the Patriots have an 86% chance of winning, while the Jets have a 14% chance.

For Week 11's opening game, our model highlights NFL player props with Breece Hall (RB) as the most likely player from the Jets to score the first TD at 6.2%, while Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) is the top candidate from the Patriots at 9.6%.

The New York Jets vs. New England Patriots game at Gillette Stadium is scheduled for Thursday, November 13 at 8:15pm. All times mentioned in this article are in Eastern Standard Time (EST).

Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins

For this week's game between the Commanders and the Dolphins, Miami is more likely to win. Our prediction model gives the Dolphins a 58% chance of winning. On the other hand, there is a 42% chance that the Commanders will win.

The Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins matchup at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium will take place on Sunday, November 16 at 9:30am.

As the regular season approaches its conclusion, track the top teams with our updated NFL futures, highlighting top Super Bowl contenders.

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

We are picking the Chargers to win their game against the Jaguars this week, with our trusted NFL model projecting a 59% win probability for the road team. The Jaguars have a 41% chance of winning.

For betting purposes, the Jaguars are listed as +2.5 underdogs, with the Chargers' moneyline at -146.

The Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars game at EverBank Stadium is slated for Sunday, November 16 at 1:00pm.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills

According to our predictive analytics model, the Bills are the team to beat in this game, with their win probability at 69%. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have a 31% chance of winning.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills game at Highmark Stadium is set for Sunday, November 16 at 1:00pm.

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings have a 59% chance of winning on Sunday afternoon, compared to the Bears' 41% chance of victory. This makes the Minnesota Vikings our pick to win at U.S. Bank Stadium.

The Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium is scheduled for Sunday, November 16 at 1:00pm.

Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants

The Packers are favorites to win here, with our predictive analytics model giving them a 77% chance, while the Giants enter the weekend with a 23% chance of causing an upset at MetLife Stadium.

When it comes to betting on this game, the Packers' moneyline odds are set at -390, with the home team Giants listed as +7.5 underdogs.

The Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants game at MetLife Stadium will take place on Sunday, November 16 at 1:00pm.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

After 10,000 simulations of Texans vs. Titans this Sunday, our model projects the Texans as the more likely winners with a probability of 79%. Their opponents, the Titans, have a 21% chance of getting the win at home.

The Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans matchup at Nissan Stadium is slated for Sunday, November 16 at 1:00pm.

Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Our model is picking the Falcons, who have a 61% chance of winning the game, while the Panthers have a 39% chance of an upset win.

The Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium will take place on Sunday, November 16 at 1:00pm.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The next game of Week 11 sees the Bengals take on the Steelers at Acrisure Stadium.

We predict the Steelers to win with a probability of 67%, while the Bengals are projected to have a win chance of 33%.

As for the Vegas betting odds here, the Steelers are listed as -5.5 favorites, with the Bengals' moneyline odds posted at +195.

The Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers game at Acrisure Stadium is scheduled for Sunday, November 16 at 1:00pm.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

The likely winner of this matchup is the 49ers, who have a projected win chance of 58%, according to DimersBOT. On the other side of this matchup, the Cardinals have a projected win probability of 42%.

The San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals matchup at State Farm Stadium is set for Sunday, November 16 at 4:05pm.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

We have run our powerful NFL model over this week’s Seahawks-Rams clash 10,000 times, with the Rams coming out as the team to pick. Of those 10,000 simulations, the Rams won 5,923 times, with the Seahawks winning on 4,077 occasions.

The Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams game at SoFi Stadium is scheduled for Sunday, November 16 at 4:05pm.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Next up is the game between the Chiefs and Broncos, with our model projecting the road team as the more likely victor, with the Chiefs rated as having a 63% chance of getting the W. The Broncos, on the other hand, are projected to have a 37% chance of winning.

For those interested in betting on this matchup, the oddsmakers have the Chiefs' moneyline odds set at -185 for this road game, while the hosting Broncos are listed as +3.5 underdogs.

The Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos game at Empower Field at Mile High will take place on Sunday, November 16 at 4:25pm.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

Our next straight up pick this week is for the Ravens to get the win against the Browns. After running 10,000 simulations of this matchup, the Baltimore have a win probability of 81%, with the Browns at 19%.

The Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns game at Huntington Bank Field is slated for Sunday, November 16 at 4:25pm.

Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles

With a win probability of 57% on Sunday night, our straight up pick for this game is the Eagles, while their opponent, the Lions, have a projected win chance of 43%.

The Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles game at Lincoln Financial Field will take place on Sunday, November 16 at 8:20pm.

For a different angle on this week's NFL action, explore Dimers' NFL trends to find the latest player prop trends.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The team to pick here is the Cowboys, who have a 62% chance of winning their matchup against the Raiders this Sunday night.

Looking at the betting odds for this Monday Night Football clash, the Raiders are listed as +3.5 underdogs at home, with the Cowboys' moneyline odds available at -190.

The Dallas Cowboys vs. Las Vegas Raiders game at Allegiant Stadium is scheduled for Monday, November 17 at 8:15pm.

NFL straight up picks and predictions for Week 11

The NFL Week 11 predictions straight up in this article are accurate at the time of publication but may change.

Dimers.com is the best site for NFL predictions, with our straight up picks trusted by football fans across the country.

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Please note that all NFL odds and probabilities mentioned on this page are subject to change.