NFL Same Game Parlay Picks for Chiefs vs. Raiders Black Friday Game

It's the first-ever NFL game on Black Friday and we've got the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC West clash between first place and last place. It may not be a primetime game, but we've got our Primetime Parlay cooked up at +900 odds for this afternoon tilt.

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+900 Raiders vs. Chiefs NFL Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our Same Game Parlay in Raiders vs. Chiefs on Black Friday.

MORE: Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs Full Game Betting Preview

Leg 1: Travis Kelce 60+ Receiving Yards (+110)

First up is the Chiefs TE Travis Kelce with an alternate line backed by our model's projection.

Kelce is having his lowest statistical output of his career but that's more reflected in his touchdown count than his role in the offense between the endzones. Even in a down year for him, he's tallied 60+ yards in six games this year, including four of his last five and six of his last eight. He burned this Raiders team for 10 catches, 90 yards and a touchdown in Week 7, and the Raiders allow the seventh-most yards to tight ends on average this season (61.5).

We project Kelce for 75 receiving yards, well over his line of 54.5, which is a slightly safer line if you want to play this down, but we'll grab the plus money at +110 with our projection in our favor.

Leg 2: DeAndre Hopkins 50+ Receiving Yards (+150)

Another alternate line in the Chiefs offense, we're taking DeAndre Hopkins to tally at least 50 yards in this one.

Hopkins has done so twice in five games with the Chiefs - too bad his first game with Kansas City was against the Raiders when he had his fewest targets, so we don't have a recent matchup to go off of. However, he has 5+ targets in every game since with multiple receptions of 30+ yards. 

The Raiders have allowed nothing but 250+ yard passers since their last meeting with Kansas City and we're projecting Mahomes for a big day with 295 yards through the air, opening the door for big days for both Kelce and Hopkins. We project Nuk for 57 yards in this one, with a 64.3% probability to go over his line of 37.5.

Leg 3: DeAndre Hopkins Anytime TD

Finally, we close out with our TD prop as always and we're going right back to our man DeAndre Hopkins. He's got three touchdowns in five weeks since joining KC, which is second-most on the team and that's among players who have been here all season.

The Chiefs offense doesn't have that otherworldly ceiling like we're used to, but Hopkins is a clear point of attack and they traded for him for a reason. He's also one of our best value plays in this game, with his TD odds at +195 and our probability of 36.6% implying fair odds of +170. 

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