NFL Same Game Parlay Picks: Bears vs. Seahawks SGP for Thursday Night Football

Following the Christmas Day slate, Week 17 in the NFL continues with the Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks on TNF and we've got our +1000 NFL Parlay picks ready to go.

The Seahawks are trying to chase down the Rams for the NFC West title and a spot in the postseason as the Wild Card looks out of reach. Meanwhile, the Bears are looking to end the regular season on a positive note over the final two games.

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+1000 Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks NFL Same Game Parlay Picks

After simulating tonight's game over 10,000 times, our model has identified the following projections and probabilities for the picks that make up our Same Game Parlay in Bears vs. Seahawkson Primetime, Thursday Night Football.

MORE: Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks Full Game Betting Preview

Leg 1: Zach Charbonnet Over 69.5 Rush Yards (-125)

Our first leg of tonight’s TNF parlay is on Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet who will be stepping into the RB1 role for Seattle for the second time in three weeks as Kenneth Walker is out with injury.

Charbonnet is a capable runner when given the workload he needs to excel – when Seattle fired him up vs. the Cardinals as Walker was out, he ripped off 134 yards on 22 carries and 59 yards on 7 catches. He took 8 touches for 54 rushing yards the following week in a blowout that saw the Seahawks abandon the run.

Tonight he’s up against the Bears’ bottom-tier rushing defense that’s allowed 134.1 yards per game on the ground this season and have allowed a single RB to exceed 69.5 rushing yards in their past seven games. Our model is projecting Charbonnet for 78.3 on the ground and a 56.8% probability to clear his line.

Leg 2: Noah Fant Over 30.5 Rec Yards (-115)

The next leg of our parlay Is in the passing game for the Seahawks as we look for TE Noah Fant to clear his 30.5 receiving yards line.

Chicago’s solid passing defense from earlier this season seems like a distant memory and even when they were playing well, the tight end position was regularly producing. They’ve allowed a tight end to clear this line in 8 of their past 10 games, ranking bottom five vs. the position over that period.

Fant has played in 12 games this year, clearing this line 4 times, though each time he’s cleared, he’s blown past it with at least 50 yards in each of those games. Our model is projecting Fant for 37.7 receiving yards and a 58.2% probability to go over.

Leg 3: Keenan Allen TD Anytime TD (+225)

We close out with a TD prop, one that just cashed for us on Sunday afternoon and that is Bears WR Keenan Allen, who’s scored five touchdowns in his past five games.

The Bears, regularly finding themselves in negative game script with a need to pass the ball, are giving Allen a late-season resurgence after he scored just 2 TDs and never cleared 45 yards through his first eight games. He’s only failed to do both those things in one game since.

He’s had at least 13 (!) targets in three of those games which is elite volume. Seattle has allowed 1.6 passing TDs per game this year and 2+ in four straight games. Even for all his struggles, Caleb Williams has thrown for a pair of scores in 4 of his past 5 games. We give Allen a 33.6% probability to score for fair odds of +200 and a little value at his odds of +225.

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