NFL Props Parlay: The best player to bet on for each team in Saturday's Divisional Round matchups

Prop Bet: Courtland Sutton over 56.5 receiving yards

Current trend: 5 of last 7

Season trend: 11 of 17

Dimers projection: 59.1 rec yards

In the first game of the day, Broncos WR Courtland Sutton is projected to follow up a strong end-of-season trend of clearing 56.5 receiving yards.

He went under in his final two games of the year, with his last game, snapping a four-game streak of 10+ targets, though he was minimally involved in that game as it was never close against a Chargers team resting starters.

Sutton has thrived with Bo Nix, recording 1,000-yard seasons in back-to-back years after going under in five of his first six years in the league, and should be a key part of the Broncos' gameplan as they push for the AFC Championship. 

The Bills' passing defense will be without S Jordan Poyer and allowed a 107-yard, 12-target outing to Jaguars WR Parker Washington last week, while Sutton's project of 59.1 receiving yards from the Dimers model puts him over this line once again. 

Prop Bet: Dawson Knox Over 20.5 receiving yards

Current trend (including playoffs): 6 of last 7

Season trend (including playoffs): 9 of 18

Dimers projection: 24.7 rec yards

On the other side of the field, Bills TE Dawson Knox is projected to continue his recent streak of production and clear 20.5 receiving yards in four straight games.

Knox saw more than 2 targets just once in his first eight games, but has seen at least 4 targets in all but three games since, as his role has grown in a depleted Bills passing game.

The Broncos ranked 7th vs. the pass this season but 22nd vs. tight ends in the passing game, allowing 63.2 receiving yards per game to the position. Their run defense ranked 2nd and the Bills may be funneled into more passing situations.

Fellow TE Dalton Kincaid has been on a limited snap count since his return and when both saw a near-even split last week, they both cleared this line, with Knox hauling in all 3 of his targets for 30 yards.

His projection of 24.7 receiving yards points to another over for Knox.

Check out our Bills vs. Broncos game prediction for more insights.

Prop Bet: Zach Charbonnet Over 9.5 receiving yards

Current trend: 4 of last 5

Season trend: 8 of 16

Dimers projection: 13.9 rec yards

In the second game of the day, our model projects Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet to keep his end-of-season stretch going where he was featured in the passing game.

Charbonnet saw 14 targets over his final 5 games after seeing just 10 all year. He has a penchant for chunk plays - in 7 of the 8 games in which he went over this number, he recorded at least one catch of 10+ yards.

The 49ers were vulnerable to passing plays out of the backfield, allowing 35 receiving yards per game to RBs over their final five games of the regular season. It was a spot the Eagles attacked them in last week, targeting Saquon 6 times (3 catches for 25 yards), as well as Seattle in Week 18 when both Ken Walker (36 yards) and Charbonnet (23 yards) cleared this mark.

The Dimers model projects Charbonnet for 13.9 receiving yards and another productive game with a 47.2% chance to score a touchdown as well.

Prop Bet: Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Current trend (including playoffs): 4 of last 5

Season trend (including playoffs): 7 of 10

The final trend we're looking at in Saturday's games focuses on the passing game once again, this time with the value identified by our model on 49ers QB Brock Purdy to throw for at least two touchdowns, rather than the Dimers projections.

Purdy missed almost half of the season but tossed at least two touchdowns in 7 of 10 games this year, including last week's playoff victory over the Eagles. Purdy threw two touchdowns in 1 of 2 games vs. the Seahawks, with his other two misses in relative blowout victories with run-heavy game scripts.

Purdy draws a 45.8% probability to throw two touchdowns, while his +144 odds imply just a 40.1% probability, giving us a substantial edge of 4.8%.

His WRs Jauan Jennings (30.5%) and Demarcus Robinson (19.9%) each get value to score a touchdown, while Christian McCaffrey gets an edge to score two touchdowns at a 20.1% probability, reinforcing the value in the 49ers' passing game to score.

For more data, check out our full predictions in 49ers vs. Seahawks.

Parlay these Player Props at +1190 odds

All backed by a strong hit rate over at least the past five games, these NFL player prop bets are also supported by the Dimers NFL simulation data.

Bettors can play each bet as a straight wager, or entertain a trends-backed NFL parlay at +1190 odds on DrafrtKings.

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