NFL player props today: Week 16's best props include Nick Chubb [12/21/2025]

Dimers' NFL props are live for December 21, 2025, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of Nick Chubb, Woody Marks and Kirk Cousins.

Our NFL player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Falcons vs. Cardinals and Patriots vs. Ravens, to surface the best NFL player prop bets across the market.

List of NFL prop picks for Week 16

Sourced from 140+ total props today, below are the top ten NFL player props for December 21, ranked by edge.

Nick Chubb under 11.5 rushing attempts (+100)

• Edge: 50.0%
• Probability: 100.0%
• Game: Raiders vs. Texans (4:25PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Houston's Nick Chubb under 11.5 rushing attempts. A probability of 100.0% gives this play an edge of 50.0% at +100 odds.

Nick Chubb under 42.5 rushing yards (-115)

• Edge: 46.2%
• Probability: 99.6%
• Projection: 0.7
• Game: Raiders vs. Texans (4:25PM ET)

Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop shows a 46.2% edge at -115 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 0.7 rushing yards on the under 42.5 line.

Woody Marks over 2.5 receiving yards (-120)

• Edge: 24.5%
• Probability: 79.1%
• Projection: 15.4
• Game: Raiders vs. Texans (4:25PM ET)

The data highlights value on Woody Marks over 2.5 receiving yards, with simulations showing a 79.1% probability and a 24.5% edge at -120.

Kirk Cousins under 1.5 rushing attempts (-150)

• Edge: 19.9%
• Probability: 79.9%
• Game: Falcons vs. Cardinals (4:05PM ET)

Our model finds value on Kirk Cousins under 1.5 rushing attempts, with a 79.9% probability and an edge of 19.9% at -150 odds.

Charlie Kolar over 0.5 receiving yards (+125)

• Edge: 13.7%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Projection: 6.7
• Game: Patriots vs. Ravens (8:20PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Charlie Kolar over 0.5 receiving yards for Baltimore, showing an edge of 13.7% at +125 odds.

Charlie Kolar over 0.5 receptions (+120)

• Edge: 13.2%
• Probability: 58.7%
• Projection: 0.9
• Game: Patriots vs. Ravens (8:20PM ET)

Charlie Kolar’s receptions prop shows an edge of 13.2% at +120 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 0.9 today.

Jordan Mason over 0.5 receptions (+185)

• Edge: 12.0%
• Probability: 47.1%
• Projection: 0.6
• Game: Vikings vs. Giants (1:00PM ET)

Our model projects Jordan Mason for 0.6 receptions for Minnesota, creating an edge of 12.0% on over 0.5 at +185 odds.

Taysom Hill under 3.5 rushing attempts (+100)

• Edge: 12.0%
• Probability: 62.0%
• Game: Jets vs. Saints (1:00PM ET)

The data shows value on Taysom Hill under 3.5 rushing attempts, supported by a 62.0% probability at +100 odds and an edge of 12.0%.

Gardner Minshew under 22.5 passing completions (-135)

• Edge: 11.9%
• Probability: 69.3%
• Projection: 20.4
• Game: Chiefs vs. Titans (1:00PM ET)

An 11.9% edge on the under 3.5 passing completions line makes Gardner Minshew a value play in Chiefs vs. Titans, with our model projecting him for 20.4 passing completions at -135 odds.

Trey McBride under 7.5 receptions (-142)

• Edge: 10.2%
• Probability: 68.9%
• Projection: 6.4
• Game: Falcons vs. Cardinals (4:05PM ET)

Simulations project Trey McBride for 6.4 receptions here, creating a 10.2% edge on the under 7.5 line at -142 odds.

NFL player prop summary: Week 16, 2025

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 12:59PM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Raiders vs. Texans	Nick Chubb under 11.5 rushing attempts	+100 @ BetMGM	50.0%	100.0%
Raiders vs. Texans	Nick Chubb under 42.5 rushing yards	-115 @ BetMGM	46.2%	99.6%
Raiders vs. Texans	Woody Marks over 2.5 receiving yards	-120 @ BetMGM	19.9%	79.9%
Falcons vs. Cardinals	Kirk Cousins under 1.5 rushing attempts	-150 @ BetMGM	19.9%	79.9%
Patriots vs. Ravens	Charlie Kolar over 0.5 receiving yards	+125 @ BetMGM	13.7%	58.2%
Patriots vs. Ravens	Charlie Kolar over 0.5 receptions	+120 @ BetMGM	13.2%	58.7%
Vikings vs. Giants	Jordan Mason over 0.5 receptions	+185 @ BetMGM	12.0%	47.1%
Jets vs. Saints	Taysom Hill under 3.5 rushing attempts	+100 @ BetMGM	12.0%	62.0%
Chiefs vs. Titans	Gardner Minshew under 3.5 passing completions	-135 @ BetMGM	11.9%	69.3%
Falcons vs. Cardinals	Trey McBride under 7.5 receptions	-142 @ DraftKings	10.2%	68.9%

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Conclusion

For December 21, 2025, our NFL prop bets feature players such as Nick Chubb, Woody Marks and Kirk Cousins. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.