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NFL player props today: Week 16's best props include Nick Chubb [12/21/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get NFL player props today with projections for Sunday's Week 16 games.
Dimers' NFL props are live for December 21, 2025, with today's top betting edges led by the likes of Nick Chubb, Brandin Cooks and Kirk Cousins.
Our NFL player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Falcons vs. Cardinals and Patriots vs. Ravens, to surface the best NFL player prop bets across the market.
List of NFL prop picks for Week 16
Sourced from 150+ total props today, below are the top ten NFL player props for December 21, ranked by edge.
Nick Chubb under 6.5 rushing attempts (-110)
- Edge: 34.6%
- Probability: 87.0%
- Game: Raiders vs. Texans (4:25PM ET)
Our model has found value on Houston's Nick Chubb under 6.5 rushing attempts. A probability of 87.0% gives this play an edge of 34.6% at -110 odds.
Brandin Cooks under 0.5 receptions (+115)
- Edge: 25.9%
- Probability: 72.4%
- Projection: 0.3
- Game: Bills vs. Browns (1:00PM ET)
Brandin Cooks’s receptions prop shows a 25.9% edge at +115 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 0.3 receptions on the under 0.5 line.
Kirk Cousins under 1.5 rushing attempts (-150)
- Edge: 19.7%
- Probability: 79.7%
- Game: Falcons vs. Cardinals (4:05PM ET)
The data highlights value on Kirk Cousins under 1.5 rushing attempts, with simulations showing a 79.7% probability and a 19.7% edge at -150.
Brandin Cooks under 5.5 receiving yards (-118)
- Edge: 14.9%
- Probability: 69.0%
- Projection: 4.3
- Game: Bills vs. Browns (1:00PM ET)
Our model projects Brandin Cooks to record 4.3 receiving yards today, creating an edge of 14.9% on the under 5.5 line at -118 odds.
Christian Kirk over 1.5 receptions (+170)
- Edge: 14.7%
- Probability: 51.7%
- Projection: 1.7
- Game: Raiders vs. Texans (4:25PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Christian Kirk over 1.5 receptions for Houston, showing an edge of 14.7% at +170 odds.
Charlie Kolar over 0.5 receiving yards (+125)
- Edge: 13.7%
- Probability: 58.2%
- Projection: 6.7
- Game: Patriots vs. Ravens (8:20PM ET)
Charlie Kolar’s receiving yards prop shows an edge of 13.7% at +125 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 6.7 today.
Charlie Kolar over 0.5 receptions (+120)
- Edge: 13.2%
- Probability: 58.7%
- Projection: 0.9
- Game: Patriots vs. Ravens (8:20PM ET)
Our model projects Charlie Kolar for 0.9 receptions for Baltimore, creating an edge of 13.2% on over 0.5 at +120 odds.
Jordan Mason over 0.5 receptions (+180)
- Edge: 11.7%
- Probability: 47.4%
- Projection: 0.6
- Game: Vikings vs. Giants (1:00PM ET)
Our expert modelling projects Jordan Mason for 0.6 receptions, creating value on the over 0.5 line at +180 odds and a 11.7% edge.
Harold Fannin Jr. under 5.5 receptions (-123)
- Edge: 10.8%
- Probability: 65.9%
- Projection: 4.8
- Game: Bills vs. Browns (1:00PM ET)
A 10.8% edge on the under 0.5 receptions line makes Harold Fannin Jr. a value play in Bills vs. Browns, with our model projecting him for 4.8 receptions at -123 odds.
Jack Bech under 1.5 receptions (-135)
- Edge: 10.6%
- Probability: 68.1%
- Projection: 2.4
- Game: Raiders vs. Texans (4:25PM ET)
Simulations project Jack Bech for 2.4 receptions here, creating a 10.6% edge on the under 1.5 line at -135 odds.
NFL player prop summary: Week 16, 2025
A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 4:41AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders vs. Texans | Nick Chubb under 6.5 rushing attempts | -110 @ BetMGM | 34.6% | 87.0% |
| Bills vs. Browns | Brandin Cooks under 0.5 receptions | +115 @ BetMGM | 25.9% | 72.4% |
| Falcons vs. Cardinals | Kirk Cousins under 1.5 rushing attempts | -150 @ BetMGM | 14.9% | 69.0% |
| Bills vs. Browns | Brandin Cooks under 5.5 receiving yards | -118 @ BetMGM | 14.9% | 69.0% |
| Raiders vs. Texans | Christian Kirk over 1.5 receptions | +170 @ BetMGM | 14.7% | 51.7% |
| Patriots vs. Ravens | Charlie Kolar over 0.5 receiving yards | +125 @ BetMGM | 13.7% | 58.2% |
| Patriots vs. Ravens | Charlie Kolar over 0.5 receptions | +120 @ BetMGM | 13.2% | 58.7% |
| Vikings vs. Giants | Jordan Mason over 0.5 receptions | +180 @ BetMGM | 11.7% | 47.4% |
| Bills vs. Browns | Harold Fannin Jr. under 0.5 receptions | -123 @ DraftKings | 10.8% | 65.9% |
| Raiders vs. Texans | Jack Bech under 1.5 receptions | -135 @ BetMGM | 10.6% | 68.1% |
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Conclusion
For December 21, 2025, our NFL prop bets feature players such as Nick Chubb, Brandin Cooks and Kirk Cousins. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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