We're officially in Week 6 of the NFL as the season, nearly a third of the way through the 2025 campaign.

The NFL season rarely goes as planned and the league evolves week-to-week - it's a collision course of countless factors and our job is to cut through the noise and bet smartly to beat the sportsbooks.

Betting on the NFL becomes second nature when you have Dimers Pro in your pocket - from our weekly Best NFL Bets and NFL Props, brand-new Player Projections Hub, Super Bowl Futures and NFL Game Predictions, there's no shortage of resources available with Dimers Pro - which you can get for 20% off with promo code 20FOOTBALL - tap the offer below to learn more!

To help set you up for the upcoming week of the NFL season, we're touching on how to bet the major storylines, looking at our best value bets and which matchups offer strong plays for your Survivor and Pick 'Em contests.

NFL Week 6 Biggest Storylines

Who will lead Chargers backfield with Omarion Hampton on IR?

The Chargers’ backfield is once again in flux after another injury setback, an ankle injury for Omarion Hampton that has landed their starter on IR for at least four weeks.

With no clear successor in place, this backfield remains unpredictable and will likely require a wait-and-see approach as neither Hassan Haskins nor Kimani Vidal has seen more than limited action in relief roles.

The fact that Haskins made the final roster while Vidal was cut suggests the team’s preference leans toward Haskins, but regardless who gets the bulk of the carries, the matchup couldn’t be more favorable, as we just watched Rico Dowdle torch the Dolphins for 200 rushing yards last week.

Our current projections favor a near-even split, with Haskins projected for 38.8 rushing yards, 13.0 receiving yards, and a 34.5% anytime touchdown probability, while Vidal sits at 37.8 rushing yards, 12.7 receiving, and 26.6% ATD.

🏈 Full game preview for Chargers vs. Dolphins

Joe Flacco arrives in Cincy

Joe Flacco is back in the AFC North, this time suiting up for another former rival as he continues his tour through division.

While Jake Browning has struggled for the Bengals, Flacco hasn’t exactly been sharp either, but his veteran experience could mean more consistent usage for the team’s top playmakers, Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase.

That’s good news for fantasy and prop bettors targeting those two, even if the Bengals’ overall outlook remains shaky. The Browns’ defensive side helped Flacco stay competitive in previous starts, but the Bengals don't boast the same level of defense.

Projections show 66.1 receiving yards for Chase, who popped up with an illness on Friday, and 46.4 for Higgins, which would mark nearly a season-best for Higgins aside from his 56-yard outing in Week 2.

The Packers have allowed just one 100-yard receiver all season (George Pickens, 134), but both Bengals stars hold solid TD value with the Dimers model finding an edge on Chase (35.1% probability) and Higgins (28.3% probability).

🏈 Best Bets, props and picks for Bengals @ Packers

Chiefs-Lions Set up Game of the Week on SNF

The Lions and Chiefs headline what could be the most entertaining game of the week on Sunday Night Football.

The Chiefs’ inability to close out tight games has been their Achilles’ heel this season—after going 10-0 in one-score contests last year, they’ve already dropped three such games in 2025, and after letting both Jaguars WRs to get going last week, they set up a prime spot for Amon-Ra St. Brown to shine once again.

In the backfield, Patrick Mahomes remains the team’s leading rusher, and projects just three yards below both Pacheco and Hunt on SNF—an ongoing issue for a supposedly elite offense and there’s still no clear answer at running back and Mahomes remains their best rushing TD threat, particularly in marquee matchups.

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs is the game's only scorer at over a 50% probability and gets an edge to score twice at +420 according to our best props, with David Montgomery just shy of a coin flip at 49.5% and star WR Amon-Ra St. Brown projected to record 70+ yards for the fifth-straight game.

🏈 Chiefs-Lions SNF Full Game Predictions

Three Division Winners to bet on now

In our latest NFL Futures update, there are three teams all favored by the Dimers model to win their division with plus money odds and value.

For the NFC North, it's the Detroit Lions at 64% to win and odds of +100, making their fair price of -175 well shorter than the even money you can get for one of our top Super Bowl contenders.

In the AFC South, our model says to back the Jaguars to win the division at 44% and odds of +155. Though both the Jaguars and Colts share a 4-1 record in the division, our model paints the Jags with a clear probability advantage and at more favorable odds.

Finally, the Chiefs hold the edge in the AFC West. This is the closest division race, with the Chargers, Broncos and Chiefs all at a 30% probability or higher to win, but the Chiefs get the edge at 36% and odds of +190.

Betting all three makes a +1379 division winner parlay you can track all season.

🏈 NFL Futures Predictions

NFL Best Bets for Week 6

Our top probability and edge are discussed weekly on the Thursday episode of the Dimers Sports Betting Podcast, which are currently on a 8-4 run on game lines this season.

Below, you will find the current top probability and best edge from our Best NFL Bets, along with our top TD prop of the weekend.

Bet: Falcons +5 vs. Bills (-112 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Dimers’ top-rated play of the week is the Falcons +5 against the Bills, showing a 56.2% probability and a 3.2% edge. Buffalo enters off a frustrating loss to the Patriots, meanwhile, Atlanta has had two full weeks to prepare and gets a matchup that favors their strengths.

Bijan Robinson faces a defense surrendering over 140 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry, while Atlanta’s secondary has limited opponents to just 135 passing yards per game and a 78.3 QBR.

With no true WR1 threat on the Bills, there's not much to scare the Falcons secondary. They don’t need to win outright to cash this bet—just cover—likely in a lower-scoring, possession-controlled affair.

🏈 Falcons-Bills Monday Night Football Predictions

Zach Charbonnet Anytime TD Scorer (+190 on bet365)

Zach Charbonnet stands out as this week’s best touchdown value, carrying a 39.3% probability and a 4.8% edge over market pricing.

That projects to fair odds closer to +150, making his +190 line on Bet365 highly appealing. Charbonnet has matched Ken Walker with 13 red-zone carries and three touchdowns, and if not for an offensive holding penalty called on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, he’d have four.

His scoring probability is nearly identical to Walker’s 42.3%, yet Walker’s TD line is listed at -115 on the same book—creating a clear +EV opportunity on Charbonnet.

While the Jaguars’ defense has limited rushing touchdowns to just four this season, the odds and track record for Charbonnet make this one of the best value TD props on the slate.

🏈 Full game preview for Seahawks vs. Jaguars

Week 6 Survivor Targets and NFL Pick 'Em Plays

Finally, we'll close out with a couple looks at which teams could make strong picks for your Survivor or Pick 'em leagues.

You'll need to deploy your own season-long strategy when making survivor picks, but this should give you some insight into Week 6, and we haven't missed a Survivor pick yet!

To find these predictions for every game, every week, check out our NFL straight up picks article.

Most likely ML Winners (Survivor)

1️⃣ Packers (91%) vs. Bengals

2️⃣ Broncos (75%) vs. Jets

3️⃣ Rams (74%) @ Ravens

4️⃣ Colts (73%) vs. Cardinals

5️⃣ Steelers (72%) vs. Browns

Editor's pick: With the Colts on a roll and Kyler Murray banged up, back Indy in Week 6.

Previous picks: WK1 Cardinals ✅ | WK2 Rams ✅ | WK3 Bucs ✅ | WK4 Texans ✅ | WK5 Lions ✅

Highest Spread Probabilities (Pick 'Em)

1️⃣ Saints +3.5 (59%) vs. Patriots

2️⃣ Chiefs -2 (57%) @ Lions

3️⃣ Falcons +5 (56%) vs. Bills

4️⃣ Ravens +7 (54%) vs. Rams

5️⃣ Titans +4.5 (54%) @ Raiders

Editor's pick: Go with the Falcons, one of our best bets discussed on Thursday's podcast episode.

Previous picks: WK1 Chargers +3.5 ✅ | WK2 Bucs +2.5 ✅ | WK3 Rams +4 ✖️ | WK4 Colts +3.5 ✖️ | WK5 Raiders +7 ✖️

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Dimers' NFL Betting Resources for the 2025-26 Season

• NFL Week 6 Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every Week 6 matchup
• NFL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game, every week
• NFL Projections: BRAND NEW Player Projections Hub
• The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast: Watch the latest episode
• Super Bowl Odds: Who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy?
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league

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