NFL Parlay for Christmas Day: Our Best Touchdown Picks for Chiefs-Steelers and Ravens-Texans

We get the gift of two NFL games on Christmas Day this Wednesday, December 25, so we're unwrapping a touchdown parlay featuring our favorite TD scorers in today's Chiefs vs. Steelers and Ravens vs. Texans games.

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+5300 NFL Christmas Day Touchdown Parlay Picks

After simulating both of today's Christmas Day NFL games over 10,000 times, our model has identified probabilities for every TD scorer in each game, including these picks that make up our +5300 Touchdown Parlay for the Christmas Day NFL slate.

MORE: Touchdown Scorer Predictions for Every NFL Game

Leg 1: George Pickens Anytime TD (+150)

First up is George Pickens, WR for the Steelers who returns to action for the first time since Week 13.  Pickens was just heating up as the alpha he should be in this offense before hurting his hamstring and missing three games.

His three touchdowns all came in his past six games before getting hurt and he's off the injury report and good to go for Christmas Day vs. the Chiefs.

The Chiefs offense is in the middle of the league as a passing defense, allowing a little 1.3 TDs per game through the air and allowed a big 30-yard TD to Tank Dell this past Saturday, and Pickens thrives in big-play, contested catch situations.

We project Pickens at a 33.8% probability to score, the highest for Pittsburgh.

Leg 2: Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+240)

On the other side of this game, we're looking at rookie WR Xavier Worthy to score for the Chiefs for his third straight game.

Worthy has back-to-back games with 11 targets and 3 carries, making him the most versatile player on this Chiefs' otherwise uninspiring offense this season. 

He's elusive and the added presence of Hollywood Brown opens up the field even more for Kansas City, if a little more crowded. The formerly shutdown Steelers defense has wavered over the past month, allowing 27+ points in three games, including 34 and 44 to the Ravens and Bengals, allowing monster WR performances in those games.

At our model's 31.3% TD probability for Worthy, we get a little touch of value  at +240 with our fair odds +220.

Leg 3: Mark Andrews Anytime TD (+190)

Moving to the second game of the night, we task Mark Andrews with scoring for the ninth time in his past 10 games and fifth straight.

A quiet start to the season seems like another lifetime compared to the past two months for Andrews, who's tied for 5th in the league in receiving touchdowns.

The Texans' passing defense has been among the best in the NFL this season but have been vulnerable and have allowed 7+ catches or a receiving touchdown to a TE in three of their past four games.

Andrews gets a 32.0% probability to keep his hot streak going.

Leg 4: Nico Collins Anytime TD (+135)

The parlay closes out with Texans star WR Nico Collins as we look for him to score vs. the Ravens exploitable defense.

Despite missing multiple games this season, Collins has six touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards. He's scored three touchdowns in five games since returning and has had plenty of close calls. His fellow WR Tank Dell went down with an unfortunate injury in Week 16, leaving Collins to absorb added volume.

The Ravens secondary has been victimized this season, allowing nearly two passing TDs per contest. Collins has seen 9+ targets in three of his past four games and will be the go-to offensively in this game for the Texans.

DimersBOT gives him a 45.5% probability to score for a little value against his +135 odds.

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