NFL best bets today: Christmas Day picks include Cowboys vs. Commanders play [12/25/2025]

Updated: Dec 25, 2025, 2:07 AM ET | First published: Dec 25, 2025, 12:10 AM ET

Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor

Get NFL best bets and predictions for Thursday, December 25, 2025.

Today’s NFL picks for Christmas Day are here, with Cowboys vs. Commanders among the top plays identified by our model across Thursday’s NFL schedule.

Dimers’ predictive analytics engine runs 24/7, searching the latest football odds to unearth top betting edges. The result? Data-backed picks that help Dimers Pro members make smarter decisions.

List of NFL best bets today [12/25, updated 2:07AM ET]

Below, you’ll find today’s best football bets, ranked by edge for Thursday, December 25, 2025.

Commanders ML (+370)

Edge: 6.3%
Probability: 27.6%
Matchup: Cowboys vs. Commanders (1:00PM ET, Thursday)

Our model has identified value on Commanders to defeat Cowboys at +370 odds. A 27.6% probability produces an edge of 6.3%, making this the strongest play for today's NFL slate.

Commanders +9.5 (-112)

Edge: 6.0%
Probability: 58.8%
Matchup: Cowboys vs. Commanders (1:00PM ET, Thursday)

Commanders +9.5 carries a 6.0% edge and a probability of 58.8% at -112 odds, according to our model.

Chiefs +13.5 (-105)

Edge: 2.2%
Probability: 53.4%
Matchup: Broncos vs. Chiefs (8:15PM ET, Thursday)

Chiefs +13.5 vs. Broncos at -105 odds shows a 2.2% edge, supported by a 53.4% probability in simulations.

NFL best bets summary: Thursday, 12/25/2025

As of 2:07AM ET, here are our top NFL bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Cowboys vs. Commanders	Commanders ML	+370 @ DraftKings	6.3%	27.6%
Cowboys vs. Commanders	Commanders +9.5	-112 @ DraftKings	6.0%	58.8%
Broncos vs. Chiefs	Chiefs +13.5	-105 @ DraftKings	2.2%	53.4%

List of upcoming NFL games to bet on [12/25/2025]

Cowboys vs. Commanders (1:00PM ET, Thursday)
Lions vs. Vikings (4:30PM ET, Thursday)
Broncos vs. Chiefs (8:15PM ET, Thursday)

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Conclusion

Our NFL best bets are locked and loaded for December 25, 2025, featuring plays such as Commanders ML and Commanders +9.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate NFL insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

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Written by

Ryan Leaver

Senior Sports and Betting Editor

Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.

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