NFL best bets today: Week 16 picks include Falcons vs. Cardinals play [12/21/2025]

Cardinals +2.5 (-102)

• Edge: 7.7%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Matchup: Falcons vs. Cardinals (4:05PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has identified value on Cardinals +2.5 at -102 odds. A 58.2% probability produces an edge of 7.7%, making this the strongest play for today's NFL slate.

Titans +2.5 (-102)

• Edge: 7.7%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Matchup: Chiefs vs. Titans (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Titans +2.5 carries a 7.7% edge and a probability of 58.2% at -102 odds, according to our model.

Giants +2.5 (-102)

• Edge: 7.7%
• Probability: 58.2%
• Matchup: Vikings vs. Giants (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Giants +2.5 vs. Vikings at -102 odds shows a 7.7% edge, supported by a 58.2% probability in simulations.

Patriots +3 (+100)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 56.5%
• Matchup: Patriots vs. Ravens (8:20PM ET, Sunday)

A 6.5% edge and 56.5% probability make Patriots +3 vs. Ravens at a value play in the Patriots vs. Ravens matchup, per our model.

Jaguars +3 (-105)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 56.5%
• Matchup: Jaguars vs. Broncos (4:05PM ET, Sunday)

Jaguars +3 at -105 odds presents a 5.2% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 56.5%.

Jets +6.5 (-110)

• Edge: 4.6%
• Probability: 57%
• Matchup: Jets vs. Saints (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Our model finds value on Jets +6.5 at -110 odds, supported by an edge of 4.6%.

Steelers ML (+275)

• Edge: 2.9%
• Probability: 29.5%
• Matchup: Steelers vs. Lions (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has uncovered value on Steelers ML at +275 odds. A 29.5% probability produces a 2.9% edge, making this a strong play for today's NFL action.

Steelers +7 (+100)

• Edge: 2.7%
• Probability: 52.7%
• Matchup: Steelers vs. Lions (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

A 2.7% edge on a 52.7% probability makes Steelers +7 at +100 odds a solid value play in today's Steelers vs. Lions matchup.

NFL best bets summary: Sunday, 12/21/2025

As of 4:32AM ET, here are our top NFL bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Falcons vs. Cardinals	Cardinals +2.5	-102 @ BetMGM	7.7%	58.2%
Chiefs vs. Titans	Titans +2.5	-102 @ FanDuel	7.7%	58.2%
Vikings vs. Giants	Giants +2.5	-102 @ DraftKings	7.7%	58.2%
Patriots vs. Ravens	Patriots +3	+100 @ BetMGM	6.5%	56.5%
Jaguars vs. Broncos	Jaguars +3	-105 @ BetMGM	5.2%	56.5%
Jets vs. Saints	Jets +6.5	-110 @ BetMGM	4.6%	57%
Steelers vs. Lions	Steelers ML	+275 @ DraftKings	2.9%	29.5%
Steelers vs. Lions	Steelers +7	+100 @ DraftKings	2.7%	52.7%

List of upcoming NFL games to bet on [12/21/2025]

• Bills vs. Browns (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Chargers vs. Cowboys (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Jets vs. Saints (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Buccaneers vs. Panthers (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Vikings vs. Giants (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Chiefs vs. Titans (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Bengals vs. Dolphins (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Jaguars vs. Broncos (4:05PM ET, Sunday)
• Falcons vs. Cardinals (4:05PM ET, Sunday)
• Raiders vs. Texans (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Steelers vs. Lions (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Patriots vs. Ravens (8:20PM ET, Sunday)

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Conclusion

Our NFL best bets are locked and loaded for December 21, 2025, featuring plays such as Cardinals +2.5 and Titans +2.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate NFL insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

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