NFL best bets today: Week 14 picks include Titans vs. Browns play [12/7/2025]

Titans +4.5 (-120)

• Edge: 13.2%
• Probability: 67.7%
• Matchup: Titans vs. Browns (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Our model has identified value on Titans +4.5 at -120 odds. A 67.7% probability produces an edge of 13.2%, making this the strongest play for today's NFL slate.

Falcons +6.5 (+100)

• Edge: 7.0%
• Probability: 57%
• Matchup: Seahawks vs. Falcons (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Falcons +6.5 carries a 7.0% edge and a probability of 57% at +100 odds, according to our model.

Bears +6.5 (-105)

• Edge: 5.7%
• Probability: 57%
• Matchup: Bears vs. Packers (4:25PM ET, Sunday)

Bears +6.5 vs. Packers at -105 odds shows a 5.7% edge, supported by a 57% probability in simulations.

Commanders ML (-125)

• Edge: 5.6%
• Probability: 61.1%
• Matchup: Commanders vs. Vikings (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

A 5.6% edge and 61.1% probability make Commanders at the moneyline at a value play in the Commanders vs. Vikings matchup, per our model.

Dolphins ML (-145)

• Edge: 4.8%
• Probability: 64%
• Matchup: Dolphins vs. Jets (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Dolphins ML at -145 odds presents a 4.8% edge, with simulations resulting in a probability of 64%.

Bengals ML (+230)

• Edge: 4.1%
• Probability: 34.4%
• Matchup: Bengals vs. Bills (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Our model finds value on Bengals to win at +230 odds, supported by an edge of 4.1%.

Bengals +5.5 (-102)

• Edge: 3.7%
• Probability: 54.2%
• Matchup: Bengals vs. Bills (1:00PM ET, Sunday) Our model has uncovered value on Bengals +5.5 at -102 odds. A 54.2% probability produces a 3.7% edge, making this a strong play for today's NFL action.

Texans +4.5 (-125)

• Edge: 3.3%
• Probability: 58.9%
• Matchup: Texans vs. Chiefs (8:20PM ET, Sunday)

A 3.3% edge on a 58.9% probability makes Texans +4.5 at -125 odds a solid value play in today's Texans vs. Chiefs matchup.

Dolphins -2.5 (-115)

• Edge: 3.0%
• Probability: 56.5%
• Matchup: Dolphins vs. Jets (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Our model projects value on Dolphins -2.5 at -115 odds. A 56.5% probability produces a 3.0% edge, making Dolphins the favorable side in Saturday’s matchup.

Commanders vs. Vikings under 43.5 points (-105)

• Edge: 2.6%
• Probability: 53.8%
• Matchup: Commanders vs. Vikings (1:00PM ET, Sunday)

Rounding out our top 10 bets, Commanders vs. Vikings under 43.5 points at -105 odds shows a 53.8% probability and a 2.6% edge.

NFL best bets summary: Sunday, 12/7/2025

As of 8:02AM ET, here are our top NFL bets by edge recommended by our model:

Matchup	Bet	Odds	Edge	Probability
Titans vs. Browns	Titans +4.5	-120 @ DraftKings	13.2%	67.7%
Seahawks vs. Falcons	Falcons +6.5	+100 @ DraftKings	7.0%	57%
Bears vs. Packers	Bears +6.5	-105 @ BetMGM	5.7%	57%
Commanders vs. Vikings	Commanders ML	-125 @ BetMGM	5.6%	61.1%
Dolphins vs. Jets	Dolphins ML	-145 @ BetMGM	4.8%	64%
Bengals vs. Bills	Bengals ML	+230 @ DraftKings	4.1%	34.4%
Bengals vs. Bills	Bengals +5.5	-102 @ FanDuel	3.7%	54.2%
Texans vs. Chiefs	Texans +4.5	-125 @ BetMGM	3.3%	58.9%
Dolphins vs. Jets	Dolphins -2.5	-115 @ BetMGM	3.0%	56.5%
Commanders vs. Vikings	Under 43.5 Points	-105 @ BetMGM	2.6%	53.8%

List of upcoming NFL games to bet on [12/7/2025]

• Steelers vs. Ravens (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Seahawks vs. Falcons (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Titans vs. Browns (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Dolphins vs. Jets (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Saints vs. Buccaneers (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Colts vs. Jaguars (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Commanders vs. Vikings (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Bengals vs. Bills (1:00PM ET, Sunday)
• Broncos vs. Raiders (4:05PM ET, Sunday)
• Bears vs. Packers (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Rams vs. Cardinals (4:25PM ET, Sunday)
• Texans vs. Chiefs (8:20PM ET, Sunday)

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Conclusion

Our NFL best bets are locked and loaded for December 7, 2025, featuring plays such as Titans +4.5 and Falcons +6.5. Powered by advanced simulations, these picks are here to boost your betting game.

This article, enhanced by AI and automation, aims to deliver accurate NFL insights quickly, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on current data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

All odds and probabilities in this article are correct and accurate at the time of publication.

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