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Yankees vs. Astros prediction: Yankees favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [4/26/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get New York Yankees vs Houston Astros predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Houston Astros will square off with the New York Yankees, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Daikin Park on Sunday, beginning at 2:10 PM ET.
Spencer Arrighetti (2-0, 2.46 ERA) will start on the mound for the Astros, while the Yankees have opted for Luis Gil (1-1, 4.11 ERA).
Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Yankees a slight edge with a 51% win probability over the Astros.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Yankees vs. Astros matchup, including best bets and picks.
Yankees vs. Astros prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's MLB matchup between the Yankees and Astros, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Yankees a 51% chance of beating the Astros.
According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 59% chance of covering the run line, while the 9.5-run over/under has a 54% chance of going over.
Yankees vs. Astros odds [4/26/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | -1.5 (+119) | +1.5 (-142) |
| Moneyline | -134 | +114 |
| Total | o9.5 (-110) | u9.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Yankees vs. Astros picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Astros +1.5 | -142 |
| Moneyline | Astros | +114 |
| Total | Over 9.5 | -110 |
According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 9.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Yankees vs. Astros game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB game between the Astros and Yankees at Daikin Park is scheduled to begin at 2:10 PM ET.
- Who: New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
- Date: Sunday, April 26, 2026
- Time: 2:10 PM ET/11:10AM PT
- Venue: Daikin Park
Conclusion
We predict the Yankees, with a 51% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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