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Mets vs. Cubs prediction: Why Cubs are favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [4/19/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets will meet in MLB action at Wrigley Field on Sunday, starting at 2:20 PM ET.
Javier Assad (1-1, 8.10 ERA) will be on the bump for the Cubs, up against Tobias Myers (0-1, 3.46 ERA) for the Mets.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Cubs as the most likely winner of the Mets vs. Cubs game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Cubs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's MLB game between the Mets and Cubs, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Cubs a 55% chance of defeating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 63% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 53% chance of going over.
Mets vs. Cubs odds [4/19/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-194) | -1.5 (+162) |
| Moneyline | +113 | -125 |
| Total | o8.5 (-105) | u8.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Cubs picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Cubs -1.5 | +162 |
| Moneyline | Cubs | -125 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -105 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Cubs game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB matchup between the Cubs and Mets at Wrigley Field is scheduled to commence at 2:20 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
- Date: Sunday, April 19, 2026
- Time: 2:20 PM ET/11:20AM PT
- Venue: Wrigley Field
Conclusion
We predict the Cubs, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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