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Patriots vs. Broncos prediction: New England favored to win AFC Championship game [2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos predictions for NFL Sunday.
The Denver Broncos will face the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game of the NFL Playoffs at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday, beginning at 3:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced NFL model predicts the Patriots as the most likely winner of the Patriots vs. Broncos game.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Patriots vs. Broncos prediction: Who will win and cover?
Since our Patriots-Broncos predictions earlier in the week, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Patriots and Broncos 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Patriots a 62% chance of beating the Broncos. Our predicted final score has the Patriots winning 23-20.
According to our model, the Broncos (+4) have a 56% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 43.5 points has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 21 straight up picks.
Patriots vs. Broncos odds
We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Patriots | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -4 (-105) | +4 (-125) |
| Moneyline | -196 | +175 |
| Total | o43.5 (-102) | u43.5 (-118) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Patriots vs. Broncos picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos +4 | -125 |
| Moneyline | Broncos | +175 |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -102 |
According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Broncos to win.
Patriots vs. Broncos TD scorers
Who will score a touchdown in Patriots vs. Broncos?
According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for Week 21, Rhamondre Stevenson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Patriots vs. Broncos.
Our projections give Stevenson a 43.0% chance of scoring a TD at Empower Field at Mile High, while the running back is a 10.1% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.
Anytime touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 43.0% |
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 31.0% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 30.3% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 27.7% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 26.4% |
Denver Broncos
| Player | Anytime TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 42.2% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 29.6% |
| Pat Bryant (WR) | 20.6% |
| Marvin Mims (WR) | 19.7% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (RB) | 19.7% |
First touchdown scorer predictions
New England Patriots
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson (RB) | 10.1% |
| TreVeyon Henderson (RB) | 6.7% |
| Hunter Henry (TE) | 6.5% |
| Stefon Diggs (WR) | 5.8% |
| Drake Maye (QB) | 5.5% |
Denver Broncos
| Player | First TD Probability |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey (RB) | 9.8% |
| Courtland Sutton (WR) | 6.2% |
| Pat Bryant (WR) | 4.1% |
| Marvin Mims (WR) | 3.9% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (RB) | 3.9% |
Patriots vs Broncos player props
Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Patriots and Broncos. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 21 games.
Quarterbacks
Of the starting quarterbacks, the Patriots' Drake Maye is projected for 232 passing yards, while the Broncos' Jarrett Stidham is expected to throw for 216 yards.
| Player | Proj. Pass Yards |
|---|---|
| Drake Maye (NE) | 232 |
| Jarrett Stidham (DEN) | 216 |
Patriots rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 54 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 37 |
| Drake Maye | 32 |
Broncos rushing
| Player | Proj. Rush Yards |
|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 42 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 27 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 17 |
Patriots receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 51 |
| Hunter Henry | 44 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 37 |
| Mack Hollins | 31 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 23 |
Broncos receiving
| Player | Proj. Rec. Yards |
|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 53 |
| Pat Bryant | 40 |
| Marvin Mims | 33 |
| Evan Engram | 25 |
| RJ Harvey | 24 |
Patriots vs. Broncos game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's action between the Broncos and Patriots at Empower Field at Mile High is scheduled to commence at 3:00 PM ET.
- Who: New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
- Time: 3:00 PM ET/12:00PM PT
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
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Conclusion
We predict the Patriots, with a 62% win probability, will likely beat the Broncos on Sunday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Patriots vs. Broncos insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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