NBA player props today: Sunday's best props include Matas Buzelis [3/1/2026]

Matas Buzelis over 1.5 blocks (+178)

• Edge: 12.7%
• Probability: 48.7%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Bucks vs. Bulls (3:30PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Chicago's Matas Buzelis over 1.5 blocks. A probability of 48.7% gives this play an edge of 12.7% at +178 odds.

James Harden over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 9.9%
• Probability: 45.8%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Cavaliers vs. Nets (3:30PM ET)

James Harden’s steals prop shows a 9.9% edge at +178 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.2 steals on the over 1.5 line.

Tobias Harris over 1.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 9.5%
• Probability: 45.4%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Pistons vs. Magic (6:00PM ET)

The data highlights value on Tobias Harris over 1.5 steals, with simulations showing a 45.4% probability and a 9.5% edge at +178.

De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 7.5%
• Probability: 45.7%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Spurs vs. Knicks (1:00PM ET)

Our model projects De'Aaron Fox to record 1.2 steals today, creating an edge of 7.5% on the over 1.5 line at +162 odds.

Jarrett Allen under 10.5 rebounds (-102)

• Edge: 6.7%
• Probability: 57.2%
• Projection: 9.2
• Game: Cavaliers vs. Nets (3:30PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Jarrett Allen under 10.5 rebounds for Cleveland, showing an edge of 6.7% at -102 odds.

Dejounte Murray over 4.5 rebounds (+134)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 49.3%
• Projection: 4.4
• Game: Pelicans vs. Clippers (9:00PM ET)

Dejounte Murray’s rebounds prop shows an edge of 6.6% at +134 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 4.4 today.

Nikola Jokic over 1.5 steals (+148)

• Edge: 6.5%
• Probability: 46.8%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets (3:30PM ET)

Our model projects Nikola Jokic for 1.3 steals for Denver, creating an edge of 6.5% on over 1.5 at +148 odds.

Austin Reaves over 4.5 assists (+116)

• Edge: 6.2%
• Probability: 52.5%
• Projection: 5.0
• Game: Kings vs. Lakers (9:30PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Austin Reaves for 5.0 assists, creating value on the over 4.5 line at +116 odds and a 6.2% edge.

Victor Wembanyama under 0.5 steals (+178)

• Edge: 6.2%
• Probability: 42.1%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Spurs vs. Knicks (1:00PM ET)

A 6.2% edge on the under 4.5 steals line makes Victor Wembanyama a value play in Spurs vs. Knicks, with our model projecting him for 1.1 steals at +178 odds.

Jarace Walker under 7.5 rebounds (+107)

• Edge: 6.1%
• Probability: 54.4%
• Projection: 6.7
• Game: Grizzlies vs. Pacers (5:00PM ET)

Simulations project Jarace Walker for 6.7 rebounds here, creating a 6.1% edge on the under 7.5 line at +107 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Sunday, March 1, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 4:13AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Bucks vs. Bulls	Matas Buzelis over 1.5 blocks	+178 @ FanDuel	12.7%	48.7%
Cavaliers vs. Nets	James Harden over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	9.9%	45.8%
Pistons vs. Magic	Tobias Harris over 1.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	7.5%	45.7%
Spurs vs. Knicks	De'Aaron Fox over 1.5 steals	+162 @ FanDuel	7.5%	45.7%
Cavaliers vs. Nets	Jarrett Allen under 10.5 rebounds	-102 @ FanDuel	6.7%	57.2%
Pelicans vs. Clippers	Dejounte Murray over 4.5 rebounds	+134 @ FanDuel	6.6%	49.3%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Nikola Jokic over 1.5 steals	+148 @ FanDuel	6.5%	46.8%
Kings vs. Lakers	Austin Reaves over 4.5 assists	+116 @ FanDuel	6.2%	52.5%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Victor Wembanyama under 4.5 steals	+178 @ FanDuel	6.2%	42.1%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers	Jarace Walker under 7.5 rebounds	+107 @ DraftKings	6.1%	54.4%

Conclusion

For March 1, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Matas Buzelis, James Harden and Tobias Harris. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.