NBA player props today: Sunday's best props include Jamal Murray [2/22/2026]

Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 10.9%
• Probability: 44.9%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Nuggets vs. Warriors (3:30PM ET)

Our model has flagged value on Denver's Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals. A probability of 44.9% gives this play an edge of 10.9% at +194 odds.

Naji Marshall over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 10.4%
• Probability: 44.4%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Mavericks vs. Pacers (5:00PM ET)

Naji Marshall’s steals prop shows a 10.4% edge at +194 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.1 steals on the over 1.5 line.

Marcus Smart over 1.5 steals (+194)

• Edge: 10.4%
• Probability: 44.4%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Celtics vs. Lakers (6:30PM ET)

The data highlights value on Marcus Smart over 1.5 steals, with simulations showing a 44.4% probability and a 10.4% edge at +194.

Donovan Mitchell over 5.5 assists (+128)

• Edge: 8.6%
• Probability: 52.5%
• Projection: 6.0
• Game: Cavaliers vs. Thunder (1:00PM ET)

Our model projects Donovan Mitchell to put up 6.0 assists today, creating an edge of 8.6% on the over 5.5 line at +128 odds.

VJ Edgecombe over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 46.5%
• Projection: 1.3
• Game: 76ers vs. Timberwolves (7:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on VJ Edgecombe over 1.5 steals for Philadelphia, showing an edge of 8.3% at +162 odds.

Austin Reaves over 4.5 assists (+134)

• Edge: 8.3%
• Probability: 51.0%
• Projection: 4.7
• Game: Celtics vs. Lakers (6:30PM ET)

Austin Reaves’s assists prop shows an edge of 8.3% at +134 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 4.7 today.

Jalen Johnson over 8.5 assists (+110)

• Edge: 7.6%
• Probability: 55.2%
• Projection: 9.4
• Game: Nets vs. Hawks (3:30PM ET)

Our model projects Jalen Johnson for 9.4 assists for Atlanta, creating an edge of 7.6% on over 8.5 at +110 odds.

Brandon Miller over 1.5 steals (+162)

• Edge: 7.6%
• Probability: 45.7%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Hornets vs. Wizards (6:00PM ET)

Our expert modelling projects Brandon Miller for 1.2 steals, creating value on the over 1.5 line at +162 odds and a 7.6% edge.

Jamal Murray over 3.5 3-pointers made (+148)

• Edge: 7.1%
• Probability: 47.5%
• Projection: 3.3
• Game: Nuggets vs. Warriors (3:30PM ET)

A 7.1% edge on the over 1.5 3-pointers made line makes Jamal Murray a value play in Nuggets vs. Warriors, with our model projecting him for 3.3 3-pointers made at +148 odds.

Deni Avdija over 5.5 assists (+102)

• Edge: 6.4%
• Probability: 55.9%
• Projection: 6.6
• Game: Trail Blazers vs. Suns (8:00PM ET)

Simulations project Deni Avdija for 6.6 assists here, creating a 6.4% edge on the over 5.5 line at +102 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Sunday, February 22, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by edge according to our model as of 2:30AM ET:

Matchup	Prop	Odds	Edge	Probability
Nuggets vs. Warriors	Jamal Murray over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	10.9%	44.9%
Mavericks vs. Pacers	Naji Marshall over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	10.4%	44.4%
Celtics vs. Lakers	Marcus Smart over 1.5 steals	+194 @ FanDuel	8.6%	52.5%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder	Donovan Mitchell over 5.5 assists	+128 @ FanDuel	8.6%	52.5%
76ers vs. Timberwolves	VJ Edgecombe over 1.5 steals	+162 @ FanDuel	8.3%	46.5%
Celtics vs. Lakers	Austin Reaves over 4.5 assists	+134 @ FanDuel	8.3%	51.0%
Nets vs. Hawks	Jalen Johnson over 8.5 assists	+110 @ FanDuel	7.6%	55.2%
Hornets vs. Wizards	Brandon Miller over 1.5 steals	+162 @ FanDuel	7.6%	45.7%
Nuggets vs. Warriors	Jamal Murray over 1.5 3-pointers made	+148 @ FanDuel	7.1%	47.5%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns	Deni Avdija over 5.5 assists	+102 @ FanDuel	6.4%	55.9%

Conclusion

For February 22, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as Jamal Murray, Naji Marshall and Marcus Smart. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers promotes responsible gambling.