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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/6.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, May 6, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 6, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.0% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 15.7% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.4% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 13.0% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Timberwolves | 12.7% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 11.8% |
| Paul George | 76ers | 11.2% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 11.1% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 10.7% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 10.0% |
| OG Anunoby | Knicks | 9.8% |
| Stephon Castle | Spurs | 9.5% |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | 8.2% |
| Devin Vassell | Spurs | 7.1% |
| Julian Champagnie | Spurs | 6.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 6, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 1.4% | +600 | 15.7% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 0.5% | +950 | 10.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/6.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onWednesday, May 6, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson lead our first basket projections, with Maxey shaping as the strongest value play at +600. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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