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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 5/5.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, May 5, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell and LeBron James lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (May 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.9% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 15.1% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.9% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 13.5% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 12.1% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.1% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 11.5% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 10.6% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 10.1% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 9.8% |
| James Harden | Cavaliers | 9.5% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 9.3% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 8.8% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 8.1% |
| Ajay Mitchell | Thunder | 7.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (May 5, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 1.6% | +850 | 12.1% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 1.5% | +1400 | 8.1% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 1.4% | +700 | 13.9% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 1.0% | +1000 | 10.1% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 0.8% | +600 | 15.1% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 5/5.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onTuesday, May 5, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Donovan Mitchell and LeBron James lead our first basket projections, while Tobias Harris shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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