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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, March 7, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/7.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, March 7, 2026—are live with the Pistons' Jalen Duren projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Duren, Kawhi Leonard and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 18.9% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 18.4% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 17.6% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 16.7% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 15.8% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 13.0% |
| Brandin Podziemski | Warriors | 12.6% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 12.1% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 11.9% |
| Nic Claxton | Nets | 11.7% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 11.4% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 11.3% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 11.2% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 11.0% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 7, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 2.2% | +550 | 17.6% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 1.6% | +1100 | 9.9% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 1.5% | +600 | 15.8% |
| Al Horford | Warriors | 1.4% | +1000 | 10.5% |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper | Grizzlies | 1.0% | +1100 | 9.4% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 1.0% | +800 | 12.1% |
| Gui Santos | Warriors | 0.8% | +850 | 11.3% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 0.5% | +460 | 18.4% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/7.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, March 7, 2026, Jalen Duren, Kawhi Leonard and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead our first basket projections, while Tyrese Maxey shapes as the strongest value play at +550. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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