Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction: Why Tampa Bay is favored to win Sunday's NHL matchup [5/3/2026]

The Tampa Bay Lightning will face the Montreal Canadiens in the 2026 NHL Playoffs at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday, beginning at 6:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model projects the Lightning as the most likely winner of the Canadiens vs. Lightning game.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Habs vs. Lightning prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NHL Playoffs game between the Canadiens and Lightning, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Lightning a 59% chance of beating the Canadiens.

According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 65% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 5.5 goals has a 52% chance of staying under.

Canadiens vs. Lightning odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Canadiens	Lightning
Puck Line	+1.5 (-198)	-1.5 (+165)
Moneyline	+136	-160
Total	o5.5 (+142)	u5.5 (-170)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Canadiens vs. Lightning picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Puck Line	Canadiens +1.5	-198
Moneyline	Canadiens	+136
Total	Over 5.5	+142

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 5.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Canadiens vs. Lightning player props

Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning?

According to our model, Jake Guentzel is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Lightning.

Our projections give Guentzel a 42.6% chance of scoring a goal at Benchmark International Arena, while the star is a 9.0% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	38.1%
Nick Suzuki	27.4%
Ivan Demidov	25.5%
Juraj Slafkovsky	24.1%
Alexandre Texier	21.2%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	Anytime Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	42.6%
Brandon Hagel	38.5%
Nikita Kucherov	35.9%
Brayden Point	33.4%
Anthony Cirelli	25.4%

First goal scorer predictions

Montreal Canadiens

Player	First Goal Probability
Cole Caufield	8.4%
Nick Suzuki	5.3%
Ivan Demidov	5.3%
Juraj Slafkovsky	4.6%
Alex Newhook	3.9%

Tampa Bay Lightning

Player	First Goal Probability
Jake Guentzel	9.0%
Brandon Hagel	7.6%
Nikita Kucherov	6.7%
Brayden Point	6.6%
Anthony Cirelli	4.9%

Habs vs. Lightning game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's game between the Lightning and Canadiens in the Stanley Cup Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 6:00 PM ET.

• Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
• Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
• Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
• Venue: Benchmark International Arena

The Stanley Cup Playoffs is an elimination tournament in the National Hockey League to determine the winner of the Stanley Cup.

Sixteen teams, including the Canadiens and Lightning, reached the 2026 NHL Playoffs, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Second Round, Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals.

Each round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.

Conclusion

We predict the Lightning, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens in Sunday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.