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Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Canadiens vs. Lightning NHL game on May 3, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
FINAL
NHL
2
1
May 3, 10 PM Benchmark International Arena
May 3, 10 PM Benchmark International Arena
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Pro Bets
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Canadiens | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Lightning | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
Win %
100%
0%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Canadiens | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Lightning | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
P3 19:15 Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 16:37 Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
P3 16:10 Erik Cernak shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
P3 15:14 Shot missed by Dominic James
P3 14:43 Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Noah Dobson
P3 12:57 Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 12:02 Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 11:07 Shot on goal by Canadiens saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 11:03 Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 09:43 Noah Dobson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 09:31 Shot missed by Cole Caufield
P3 09:18 Noah Dobson shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
P3 09:12 Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
P3 07:05 Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 06:04 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jakub Dobes
P3 05:34 Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 05:12 J.J. Moser shot blocked by Ivan Demidov
P3 02:52 Zachary Bolduc shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
P3 01:44 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P2 19:59 Brayden Point shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
End of 3rd Period.
Penalty to Mike Matheson 2 minutes for Delay of Game
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
Power play - Nick Paul won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
SHOT
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
Anthony Cirelli credited with hit on Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
Jake Evans won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
SHOT
Erik Cernak shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
SHOT
Shot missed by Dominic James
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Noah Dobson
Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Jake Evans credited with hit on Brayden Point in defensive zone
Brayden Point won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Brayden Point won faceoff against Jake Evans in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jakub Dobes
Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Canadiens saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Lane Hutson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
SHOT
Shot missed by Cole Caufield
SHOT
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
SHOT
Kaiden Guhle shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
Brayden Point credited with hit on Alexandre Carrier in offensive zone
Kirby Dach won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jakub Dobes
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nick Suzuki saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
SHOT
J.J. Moser shot blocked by Ivan Demidov
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in offensive zone
Dominic James won faceoff against Jake Evans in neutral zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Zachary Bolduc shot blocked by Oliver Bjorkstrand
Nick Paul credited with hit on Kaiden Guhle in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Paul
Nick Paul won faceoff against Alex Newhook in neutral zone
Takeaway by Noah Dobson in offensive zone
Alexandre Carrier credited with hit on Brandon Hagel in neutral zone
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
End of 2nd Period.
SHOT
Brayden Point shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
Alex Newhook won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
Nick Paul won faceoff against Alex Newhook in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
Stoppage - Offside
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Juraj Slafkovský
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nick Suzuki
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in defensive zone
Penalty to Dominic James 2 minutes for Misconduct
SHOT
Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Lightning in offensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Kirby Dach won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in neutral zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Nick Paul
Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Stoppage - Icing
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Dominic James in defensive zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Gage Goncalves in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Jake Guentzel shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by J.J. Moser
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
SHOT
Ryan McDonagh shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
Power play - Takeaway by Lane Hutson in defensive zone
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Jakub Dobes
Power play - Jake Guentzel won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jakub Dobes
Shorthanded - Jake Evans won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Charle-Edouard D'Astous saved by Jakub Dobes
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jakub Dobes
SHOT
Nikita Kucherov shot blocked by Alex Newhook
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Alex Newhook in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jakub Dobes
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Lane Hutson
Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Alexandre Carrier in offensive zone
Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in neutral zone
End of 1st Period.
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Lightning in defensive zone
Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in defensive zone
Jake Evans won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Alexandre Carrier
SHOT
Shot on goal by Alexandre Carrier saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Gage Goncalves saved by Jakub Dobes
Giveaway by Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
SHOT
Brandon Hagel shot blocked by Lane Hutson
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Josh Anderson in defensive zone
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
Nick Paul won faceoff against Phillip Danault in offensive zone
SHOT
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Erik Cernak
SHOT
Shot missed by Zachary Bolduc
SHOT
Oliver Bjorkstrand shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
SHOT
Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
SHOT
Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Zachary Bolduc
SHOT
Shot missed by Dominic James
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Shot on goal by Juraj Slafkovský saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jakub Dobes
SHOT
Shot on goal by Noah Dobson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Mike Matheson shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
SHOT
Josh Anderson shot blocked by J.J. Moser
Stoppage - Icing
SHOT
Lane Hutson shot blocked by teammate
SHOT
Shot missed by Brendan Gallagher
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in neutral zone
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Nick Suzuki in neutral zone
Stoppage - Puck in Benches
Nick Suzuki won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
SHOT
Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Jakub Dobes
Takeaway by Ryan McDonagh in defensive zone
Phillip Danault won faceoff against Nick Paul in offensive zone
SHOT
Shot on goal by Kaiden Guhle saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
SHOT
Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Jakub Dobes
Jake Evans won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
Canadiens won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
Stats
| STATS | |
|---|
| 9 | Shots on Goal | 29 | |||
| 53% | Faceoff Win % | 47% | |||
| 2/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/1 | |||
| 6 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 43 | Hits | 30 | |||
| 13 | Shots Blocked | 15 | |||
| 12 | Giveaways | 12 |
| |
|---|
| 9 | Shots on Goal | 29 | |||
| 53% | Faceoff Win % | 47% | |||
| 2/0 | PP Opportunities/PP Goals | 3/1 | |||
| 6 | Penalty Infraction Mins | 4 | |||
| 43 | Hits | 30 | |||
| 13 | Shots Blocked | 15 | |||
| 12 | Giveaways | 12 |
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Canadiens vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Canadiens vs. Lightning
- Date: Sunday, May 3, 2026
- Time: 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: Benchmark International Arena
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
- Total (Over/Under): 5.5
- Moneyline Odds: Canadiens +151, Lightning -147
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Canadiens: 41%
- Lightning: 59%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Canadiens a win probability of 41%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 59%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Canadiens in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Canadiens vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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