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Canadiens vs. Penguins prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's NHL matchup [12/11/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins predictions for NHL Thursday.
The Pittsburgh Penguins will take on the Montreal Canadiens, in what is expected to be a tight NHL game, at PPG Paints Arena on Thursday, starting at 7:00PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced NHL model gives the Penguins a slight edge with a 54% win probability over the Canadiens.
This article offers further insights into Thursday's Canadiens vs. Penguins matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Habs vs. Penguins prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's NHL game between the Canadiens and Penguins 10,000 times as part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Penguins a 54% chance of defeating the Canadiens.
According to our model, the Canadiens (+1.5) have a 68% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Canadiens vs. Penguins odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Canadiens | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | +1.5 (-235) | -1.5 (+205) |
| Moneyline | +102 | -118 |
| Total | o6.5 (+104) | u6.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Canadiens vs. Penguins picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Penguins -1.5 | +205 |
| Moneyline | Penguins | -118 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -120 |
According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
Canadiens vs. Penguins player props
Who will score a goal in Canadiens vs. Penguins?
According to our model, Cole Caufield is most likely to score an anytime goal in Canadiens vs. Penguins.
Our projections give Caufield a 41.0% chance of scoring a goal at PPG Paints Arena, while the star is an 8.1% chance of registering the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 41.0% |
| Ivan Demidov | 29.0% |
| Nick Suzuki | 28.8% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 27.0% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 24.8% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 40.0% |
| Bryan Rust | 34.7% |
| Anthony Mantha | 31.1% |
| Thomas Novak | 24.1% |
| Kevin Hayes | 22.6% |
First goal scorer predictions
Montreal Canadiens
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Cole Caufield | 8.1% |
| Ivan Demidov | 5.3% |
| Nick Suzuki | 5.1% |
| Oliver Kapanen | 4.6% |
| Juraj Slafkovsky | 4.3% |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | 7.9% |
| Bryan Rust | 6.7% |
| Anthony Mantha | 6.0% |
| Thomas Novak | 4.2% |
| Kevin Hayes | 3.9% |
Habs vs. Penguins game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's game between the Penguins and Canadiens at PPG Paints Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:00PM ET.
- Who: Montreal Canadiens vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
- Date: Thursday, December 11, 2025
- Time: 7:00PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: PPG Paints Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Penguins, with a 54% win probability, will likely beat the Canadiens on Thursday.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Canadiens vs. Penguins insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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